Baseball Buffet for 9/30/2022

Some notes and predictions for tonight's games

Note: This is an initial test / beta of a daily baseball review article I might to do more of in the future, possibly in 2023. It is intended for casual fans, serious fans, and those who are into betting on baseball. I welcome your feedback!

Today we had two early games: Game 1 of a double-header between the Phillies and Nationals at 1:05pm ET, and then Cubs host the Reds at 2:20pm ET. In what follows I’ll mostly cover the evening games, but I wanted to mention what I would have said about the PHI/WSN game. And that is this: prior to today, Bryce Harper is 10-19 with 6 HR and a double in his career against Erick Fedde. Yikes... talk about owning someone. Rhys Hoskins was 7-23 with 2 HR against Fedde and Kyle Schwarber was 3-4 with a homer, so there were some interesting HR parlay bets or overall Phillies stacks for hits, homers, or in daily fantasy games.

Not surprisingly, the Phillies won though it wasn’t a slugfest at 5-1. Hoskins hit the games only HR, with Harper only going 1-4 with a single and a walk. What the Phillies had a lot of was stolen bases, with catcher J.T. Realmuto swiping three to increase his already impressive season total to 21. Bohm, Harper, and Stott also stole bases, making for a total of six — pretty rare these days.

OK, now for all the night games. I'll look at game/run/moneylines, homeruns, and strikeouts.

Game/Run/Money Lines

There are lots of factors to consider of course, but one thing I pay attention to is how well the starting pitchers in a matchup have done historically against the batters currently on the opposing team's roster. Using the stats from Stathead here, some things that jump out at me are:

The favored Blue Jays over the Red Sox. Blue Jays hitters have batted .306 with 8 HR in 121 at-bats against Nick Pivetta, and he strikes them out at only a 20% rate. Alek Manoah also doesn't have a high strike out rate against Red Sox hitters (19.5%), but they've only hit .222 against him with 2 HR in 72 at-bats.

The favored Guardians over the Royals. Over 93 plate appearances, Guardians hitters have hit .310 (though with only 2 HR) against Brady Singer, while he's struck them out at a rather low 14% rate. Aaron Civale has only struck out the Royals hitters at a 19.7% rate, but he has held them to only 12 hits in 56 at-bats (.215).

The favored Twins over the Tigers. Joe Ryan has done very well against Tigers hitters, holding them to a .194 average while getting 27 K in 68 plate appearances (39.7%). One hesitation here is that in limited action Tyler Alexander has done well against Twins hitters, holding them to a .100 average (3-30) while striking out 11 in 31 plate appearances, a very out-of-character 35% rate.

Phillies and Nationals to score over 8.5 runs in Game 2. For game two of this double-header, it appears the Nationals will go with an opener / bullpen approach, and the Phillies lineup is pretty potent (unless they rest key guys after game 1). Noah Syndergaard has not faired well against the Nationals hitters, who have hit .369 (31-84) against him. He's not who he used to be and is no longer a major strikeout pitcher either (only 13.6% against National hitters). In particular, Cesar Hernandez has gone 14-35 (.400) against him, and Victor Robles really has him figured out (6-15 with 3 HR and a double).

There are a couple of really fun pitching duels tonight, but they of course have low total run lines, so are hard to bet.

MIA vs. MIL. Miami with Sandy Alcantara are visiting Milwaukee with Corbin Burnes. Both pitchers have good numbers against the opposing hitters, though in rather limited plate appearances.

NYM vs. ATL. Jacob deGrom had an off game last time out, but has held Braves hitters to a .220 average and has an impressive 70 strikeouts in 178 plate appearances (39% K rate). Dansby Swanson in particular has struggled batting .194 (6-31), while Austen Riley has managed to go 5-17 with 2 HR. Max Fried hasn't had as much success against the Mets, but has held them to a .228 average with only 5 HR in 189 plate appearances (Alonso 2, Canha 2, and Lindor 1).

Home Runs

Here are some guys to watch for HRs tonight:

Nick Pivetta has given up 25 HR this year, which is 1.3 HR/9. Watch especially Bo Bichette who is 9-22 with 2 HR and 2 D against him and George Springer who is 7-15 with 1 HR and 2 D. Another is Vlad Guerrero of course, though he is only 4-19 with 1 HR.

The same as Pivetta, Jordan Lyles of the Orioles has allowed 25 HR this year, also for a 1.3 HR/9 rate. All eyes are on Aaron Judge of course, and he is 4-15 with 2 HR and 2 D against Lyles, so maybe tonight will be the night he hits #62! Anthony Rizzo is a lefty to watch against Lyles, though he is only 8-31 with 2 HR and 1 D against him. Giancarlo Stanton is a more impressive 7-18 with 1 HR and 2 D, and Josh Donaldson has yet to HR off Lyles, but has hit him well at 7-15 with a triple and double.

Some other one-off guys to watch for HR or at least total bases betting potential tonight include:

• Jose Ramirez is 6-13 with 1 HR and 1 D vs. Brady Singer

• Christian Walker is 5-11 with 1 HR and 1 D vs. Alex Cobb

• Salvador Perez is 3-5 with 1 HR and 1 D vs. Aaron Civale

• Anthony Santander is 2-5 with 2 HR vs. Domingo German

• Marcus Semien has yet to HR over Reid Detmers but is 4-8 with a Triple against him, and hit a HR last night

Strikeout Over/Under for Starting Pitchers

The strikeout over/under lines are usually set very close to each starting pitcher's average strikeouts per game started, with some variance for recent performance and the opposing team's strikeout rate (e.g., the Angels lead MLB in striking out the most, while the Guardians strikeout the least). Here are some notes on strikeout lines for some of tonight's starting pitchers:

Brady Singer - Under 4.5. He is facing Cleveland, the team that strikes out the least in all of baseball. He did manage 5 K in 7 IP back on July 8, but of course 7 IP is about his max. More recently he only had 1 K in 6 IP on September 5. His three starts since that game were against DET, BOS, and SEA and were solid with K totals of 6, 5, and 8. But his overall strikeout rate against Guardians hitters is a paltry 14%, so I like the under here.

Tyler Alexander - Over 3.5. Normally I wouldn't take the over on a low-K pitcher like Alexander. But in his one start against the Twins this year, on August 3, he struck out 5 over 5 IP while allowing only 2 hits. In his last two starts he's posted 4 strikeouts against Baltimore, and 5 against the White Sox -- not huge numbers, but I like the over here.

Joe Ryan - Over 5.5. Striking out 5.5 is spot on in terms of Ryan's average per start. And Detroit has only had 32 Ks in their last five games (fourth lowest in baseball). But Ryan's four starts against the Tigers have been solid this year: 9K in 7IP, 7K in 5.2IP, 9K in 5IP, and he has an impressive 40% K rate against Tiger hitters.

Jacob deGrom - under 9.5. Yes, deGrom on the year has averaged 9 K per start. And yes, he had 12 against them on August 7 (and then had 9 against them on August 18). And yes, the Braves on the season, as good as their lineup is in general, strikeout the third most in all of baseball. But 9.5 is a big number, and two things give me reason to choose the under: his last start in which he only pitched 4 innings with 5 strikeouts against Oakland, and the possibility of a pitch count watch as head into the post-season.

Framber Valdez - over 5.5. This one seems pretty easy. Yes, the Rays are a good team, but over the past five games they have struck out more than any other team (57). Valdez got roughed up for 11 hits in 5.1 IP in his last start against Baltimore, but still managed 6 strikeouts. And he's had 6+ K in his last eight starts (!), dating back to August 11, with totals of 8, 6, 8, 8, 11, 8, 7, 6. And his last game notwithstanding, he's been insanely consistent this year, and averages 6.5 IP per start too.

Sandy Alcantara - over 6.5. Not a lot of data to go by here, as he hasn't faced the Brewers yet this season. But he goes deep into games, averaging almost 7 IP. He's had 7+ in three of his last four starts, including 11 in 8 IP last time out against the Nationals. And the Brewers on the season have struck out the fifth most in all of baseball.

Johan Oviedo - over 3.5. Here too, not a lot of data since he hasn't faced the Cardinals this year (as a starter or reliever). The Cardinals on the season have struck out the fifth least in all of baseball, though slightly more lately. That said, in Oviedo's five starts, all in September, he has posted 4+ strikeouts four times, only failing to do so in his start against the Mets on Sept 7 when he only lasted 1.2 innings. In his most recent two games, he posted 6 K in 4 IP vs. the Mets, and 7 K in 7 IP vs. the Cubs.

Glenn Otto - over 4.5. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, and in his last three games he's only fanned 2, 3, and 3, respectively. But the on the season the Angels have struck more than any other team, and Otto did well against them in his two starts: 7K in 5IP on May 25, and 5K in 5IP (though 4ER allowed) on Jul 30.

Yu Darvish - over 6.5. No recent experience to look at for Darvish against White Sox batters. And on the season they have struck out the seventh least of all teams. But in five September starts Darvish has put up K totals of 9, 6, 7, 8, and 8, while only 5 ER in 33 IP.

Clayton Kershaw - over 6.5. One risk is that Kershaw might have a limited pitch count tonight with the postseason looming. And he didn't do well against the Rockies in two earlier starts this year: 4 K in 4IP and only 3K in 5.1 IP. Both those games were in Colorado, so I'm not weighing them very heavily here. More recently, Kershaw has been great, with K totals in five September starts of 6, 8, 5, 10, and 7, while allowing only 6 ER in 30 IP. Also, the Rockies have the fourth most strikeouts (55) over their past five games of any team in baseball.

Merrill Kelly - over 5.5. On the season, the Giants have struck out the fourth most of all teams. Kelly has been very effective against them over five starts this year, with K totals of 6, 4, 7, 7, and 6 (his last start on September 24). He's also had 6+ strikeouts in all but one of his last 9 starts (and in that one he still had 5).

Well that its for this first Baseball Buffet article! Let me know what you think, and if this sort of write-up more frequently in 2023 would be of interest.