Just as everyone predicted... the Tampa Bay Rays and the Pittsburgh Pirates!
It is still early in the 2023 season, but with just under 15% of games played the best winning percentages belong to two small-market, low payroll clubs
Issue #81
Through April 24th, the average MLB team had played 22 games. That is 13.5% of the full 162-game regular season. So it is still early, but congratulations are clearly due to the two biggest (positive) team-level surprises thus far, the Tampa Bay Rays and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Granted, many said at the outset of the season that the Rays would be in playoff contention this year. You almost have to say that these days, even if the casual baseball fan can’t pinpoint exactly why the Rays will once again be in the hunt come September. They have made the playoffs the past four years—and even all the way to World Series in the shortened 2020 season. Such success is impressive given the small-market, low-payroll nature of the team year-in and year-out. But they are well known for experimenting with different strategies, getting the most out of their players, and generally finding different ways to win.
What is surprising, however, is that the Rays currently have a 19-3 record, which an .864 winning percentage [Note: while writing this article they won again, so are now 20-3]. Obviously that is not a sustainable pace for an entire season, as it works out to about 139 wins—the all-time record is 116 wins, first accomplished by the 1906 Cubs and then equaled by the 2001 Mariners. But even if 139 wins is out of reach, could Tampa reach 116? Sure. Is that likely? No. Are they going to at least win 100 and make the playoffs again? Very likely. I’ll note they might do so while not winning their own division outright, because although they already have a 4.5 game lead over the second-place Orioles, all five AL East teams are currently over .500 making it the most competitive of MLB’s six division (something many once again predicted it would be).
If the Rays are a surprise not because they are good, but merely by just how good they have been thus far, the Pittsburgh Pirates are a surprise on another level. The Buccos were predicted to be leading the NL in winning percentage at this point in the season by precisely zero baseball experts. And probably less than 10% of diehard Pirates fans even. Seriously—just a month ago it was considered wild speculation to predict the Pirates would have a winning season or come in third in the NL Central division. Most had them coming in fourth or fifth, battling for the basement of the division with the Cincinnati Reds, if not the entire National League with the likes of the Nationals and Rockies.
And yet, here are the black-and-gold-clad Pirates sitting with a 16-7 mark, good for a .696 winning percentage, best in the NL and second best in all of baseball. They are currently on a seven-game winning streak, longer than even the Rays current 5-game streak.
As an aside, personally, I’m delighted. I turn 50 years old in September, and I’ve been a Pirates fan since I was five… that’s right, 1979. That was the year of the super-fun (except for Baltimore fans) “We Are Family” Pittsburgh Pirates World Series champions. I lived (and still live) near Rochester, NY. We are six hours away from NYC, so there is no required state allegiance to the Yankees or Mets (though plenty of folks in Western NY are fans of those teams). The closest major league team geographically, at a 3.5-hour drive, is actually the Toronto Blue Jays—but they are in a different country! Many folks who grew up in Rochester during 70s and 80s became fans of the Orioles, because they were the parent team of our local AAA Rochester Red Wings. Fair enough—but that affiliation changed long ago to the Minnesota Twins, and then with the recent MiLB realignment changed again to the Washington Nationals. In short, people where I live have a wide range of favorite MLB teams.
For me, I simply found myself a 5-year old kid in need of a favorite team, so I jumped on the bandwagon in 1979 of the fun team, the champions with the cool black and gold hats (with stars!) , and they’ve been my team ever since. Not that I’ve advertised my fandom much—they’ve made the playoffs only six times since 1979, both in painful three-year bursts where the planning had come to fruition, only to see the team dismantled due to roster salary cuts as a low-spending, small-market team.
And of course I’m realistic—it is very possible, perhaps even likely, that the Pirates come back to earth, regress-to-the-mean so to speak, and end the year with a losing record. Or if they are over .500, they might very well not the playoffs. But surely the 2023 Pirates are better than the 2022 Pirates—so congratulations to them!
How are the Rays and Pirates winning so much thus far in 2023? Before I share some numbers on that, I want to show just how impressive their early success is, relative to their very low payrolls.
Getting Plenty of Bang For Your Buck(Bucco?)
Here is a scatter plot of the opening day payroll (as provided by USA Today) vs. each team’s winning percentage through April 24:
By far the highest payroll is Steve Cohen’s New York Mets, coming in at a lofty $353,546,854. Next up are the cross-town New York Yankees, and the recently high-spending San Diego Padres. Both New York teams are around .600 in winning percentage, and that is even with a lot of early injuries for the old-age Mets pitching staff. The Padres have been a bit disappointing so far, but Tatis is back so perhaps they will start to surge.
On the flipside, the four lowest payrolls are:
Oakland, $56,895,000
Baltimore, $60,722,300
Tampa Bay, $73,184,811
Pittsburgh, $73,277,500
The Oakland Athletics perhaps won’t be the Oakland Athletics much longer: How does Las Vegas Athletics or Las Vegas A’s sound? I’m not sure, but that is a topic for another time.
What is impressive here is that the next three lowest payroll teams are all doing so well so far in 2023—the Rays, the Pirates, and the Orioles too at 14-7, the second place AL East team I mentioned earlier. Interestingly, of the 14 lowest payroll teams, 8 have a winning record so far in 2023. Again, it is still early—I’ll check back on this at the end of the season.
Breaking down the Rays and Pirates winning records
The baseball season is a long one, and no doubt an element of luck comes into play in some wins—and with some losses. But in looking at the numbers, several things stood out to me to help explain the success of Tampa and Pittsburgh.
First off, the Rays are seriously outscoring their opponents, 6.8 to 2.8. That is by far the largest run differential of any club, 4.0 compared to the Rangers second best 2.9 mark. The Pirates come in a tie (with the Braves) for sixth in this regard, outscoring their opponents on average 4.8 to 3.7.
Interestingly, if we consider strength-of-schedule to be how each opposing team is doing so far this year in terms of run-scored, the Rays have the third lowest mark. This is because they have played series against three of the five lowest scoring teams so far—the Tigers, Athletics, and the Nationals—as well as the Reds, who rank 23 of 30 in run scoring. So part of that 19-3 record is surely due to this factor.
The Pirates’ strength of schedule is right in the middle, ranking 16th as measured by the run-scoring of their opponents so far this year. Yes, they’ve already had two series against the low-scoring Reds, and one against the Rockies. But they’ve also faced the Astros, Cardinals, and Red Sox too—and have gone 6-4 against them.
Similarly, here is how the Rays and Pirates have faired against teams that are at or over .500 and those that are under .500:
Rays are 5-2 against .500+ teams and 14-1 against losing clubs
Pirates are 4-2 against .500+ teams and 12-5 against losing clubs
Of course with such small sample sizes thus far, one could argue that one reason the losing clubs are losers so far is that they’ve had to face the mighty Rays and Pirates!
Both teams have done well at home and on the road, with the Tampa an astounding 13-0 at home while 6-3 on the road, and Pittsburgh coming in at 7-3 at home and an impressive 9-4 on the road.
The teams’ success in 1-Run games has been important, with the Rays going 3-0 and the Pirates 5-1. Last year the Rays were an even 27-27 in 1-run games, while the Pirates were only 21-27—though that works out to be a .438 winning percentage, higher than their overall .383 mark last year.
And lastly, both teams are handling RHP and LHP starters:
Rays are 13-2 vs. RHP and 6-1 vs. LHP
Pirates are 12-5 vs. RHP and 4-2 LHP
By the way, there are some teams who thus far in the season are unbalanced in this regard, like the Dodgers who are 11-5 vs. RHP but only 1-6 vs. LHP, or in reverse the Reds who are 2-13 vs. RHP but 5-2 vs. LHP.
Hitting stats for the Rays and Pirates
You win ball games by scoring more runs than you allow. So not surprisingly, with a 19-3 record the Rays are doing quite well in both respects: I already noted they have the greatest run differential in baseball, but they are also leading the majors in runs scored per game at 6.77 and leading the league in fewest runs allowed at 2.77. The Pirates are not as extreme in this regard, as their 4.83 runs per game ranks 10th and their 3.74 runs per game allowed ranks 6th.
For the Rays, a lot of their run-scoring has come by way of the HR. They’ve actually set a new MLB record by hitting a HR in their first 21 games of the season [then extended to 22 games, but the streak ended there]. With 48 HR in total (led by 6 each from Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe, and 5 each from Randy Arozarena and Harold Ramirez), they are on a pace for 353 on the season. That would destroy the record of 307 set by 2019 Minnesota Twins. The Dodgers have 43 HR so far, and then the Giants are a distant third with 33—so clearly it is early and the Rays won’t keep up this HR barrage for the entire season.
The Pirates are tied for ninth in HR with 27, led by Bryan Reynolds who has 5, and platoon outfielder Jack Suwinski who has 5 in only 60 PA. The Buccos are hitting relatively more of the other two types of extra-base hits: they are tied for the lead in triples with seven and are tied for fourth in the majors with 47 doubles (led by veteran Carlos Santana who has 8).
Both teams are limiting their strikeouts to some degree, with the Rays striking out the seventh least and the Pirates more in the middle of the pack. The latter are showing good patience at the plate though, accepting the sixth most walks of any team so far.
In terms of team hitting percentages, the Rays are leading the majors in all three major categories with a .282 BA, .355 OBP, and a .535 (far ahead of second place Dodgers at .460). The Pirates have a more modest team slashline of .250/.329/.436. Batting average leaders for teach team include Harold Ramirez (.373), Josh Lowe (.345), Randy Arozarena (.341), and Yandy Diaz (.307) for the Rays, and Connor Joe (.357) and Bryan Reynolds (.294) for the Pirates.
The Pirates more so than the Rays seem to be leveraging the more advantageous baserunning rules in 2023. Pittsburgh so far has 25 SB, which is second only to Cleveland’s 28. With only 5 CS, that means they have been swiping bags at a very efficient 83% rate. The thievery is spread around the roster, as no one has more than 3 SB on the team except Ji Hwan Bae who has 5. The Rays are above average with 17 SB (led by Wander Franco and Josh Lowe with 4 each), but also have 8 CS which is tied with the Cubs for the most in the majors.
I looked for other team-level outlier stats, and found that Tampa has grounded into fewer double plays than other team with only 7 so far (compare that to Marlins at the opposite extreme who already have 24 GDPs). And for what its worth the Pirates have executed the most sacrifice flies so far in 2023 with 11 (four coming from Bryan Reynolds alone).
Team-level pitching and fielding stats for the Rays and Pirates
A 19-3 record wouldn’t result from only hitting success, and the Rays have also had great pitching so far in 2023. They are leading the majors with a 2.71 ERA, driven lower in part by six team shutouts. They have the lowest H/9 ratio at a paltry 6.2 (Yankees are second at 6.9) and the lowest HR/9 ratio at 0.6 (Braves are close at 0.7). The Rays SO/9 is above average at 9.4, but their BB/9 of 3.2 is close to the MLB average of 3.5. Their hits and walks results though still add-up to the best in baseball, with a tidy staff WHIP of only 1.046.
Breaking down the Ray’s pitchers, we see it is the starters who have been particularly strong with a MLB-best 2.54 ERA (Twins are second with a 2.85 mark). The Rays starters’ WHIP is a mere 1.016 and their SO/9 is also setting the pace at an even 11.00. Opponents are slashing a pathetic .203/.260/.294 against Tampa’s starters, which have primarily been Shane McClanahan (1.86 ERA in 5 GS), Drew Rasmussen (2.01 ERA in 4 GS), Jeffrey Springs (0.56 ERA in 3 GS), Zach Eflin (2.81 ERA in 3 GS), and rookie Taj Bradley (2.61 ERA in 2 GS).
Like all teams so far except the Marlins and Yankees, the Rays have yet to have a hurler toss a complete game in 2023—so their bullpen has also been critical to their success. Rays relievers have posted a 2.91 ERA, third best in the majors behind only the Yankees (2.44) and the Rangers (2.61). Their bullpen is effective with a second-best 1.082 WHIP, and a stingy .180/.288/.282 opponent slash line. But they don’t blow people away, as the Rays relievers have the third lowest SO/9 ratio at only 7.43, nor have they managed to accumulate many saves yet in 2023 with only 4 (tied for third least). Pete Fairbanks has three of them, to go with a spotless 0.00 ERA in 7 IP so far. Lefties Garrett Cleavinger (1.04 ERA in 8.2 IP) and Colin Poche (1.23 ERA in 7.1 ERA) have also been key contributors.
The Pirates on the other hand lead the majors in saves with 12 so far this year, 8 coming from David Bednar who also has posted a 0.82 ERA across 11 IP. Overall, their bullpen’s ERA is an 11th best 3.36, while their WHIP is an unattractive and 8th worst 1.391. They are holding their opponents to a slash line of .243/.327/.345, which is only particularly good in the SLG category (8th best). Besides Bednar, two other relievers of note have been Colin Holderman (1.64 ERA in 11 IP) and Jose Hernandez (1.13 ERA in 8 IP).
Similar to their bullpen, the Pirates starting pitchers’ numbers are not as impressive as the Rays. What matters is that they have been surprisingly good—better than expected at the start of the season. The starters’ ERA of 3.80 is ninth best, their WHIP and SO/9 are middle of the pack, but ultimately they are holding opponents to a .241/.313/.395 slashline. Johan Oviedo has seen the most success with a 2.22 ERA over 24.1 IP in 4 GS, with Mitch Keller, Vince Velasquez, Roansy Contreras, and veteran Rich Hill also having some good starts.
I won’t spend much time on analyzing fielding stats, but will note that the Rays have a team .990 fielding percentage which is tied for sixth best, while the Pirates are tied for seventh worst with a .983 mark. They’ve turned a league average 18 double plays, so that hasn’t been a major factor in their success—and it certainly hasn’t been for the Rays as they’ve turned even fewer at only 15.
All of this success, with key pieces missing
All of the success of the Rays and Pirates so far in 2023 is even more impressive when you consider that each team is missing a key contributor. An obique injury has kept Rays’ starter Tyler Glasnow off the field, though he might be back in a few weeks. That is critical since Jeffrey Springs was lights out in his first three starts (0.56 ERA, with 24 K and only 4 hits allowed in 16 IP), but is now out for the year due to Tommy John surgery.
The Pirates could have really deflated fast when 24-year-old SS Oneil Cruz fractured his fibula in a play at home plate against the White Sox. I’ve heard a rumor that their is pending legislation requiring all first mentions of Cruz in articles to use at least two adjectives like athletic, exciting, young, talented, tall, lanky, powerful, etc. While he was only hitting .250 with 1 HR and 3 SB in 9 games before the injury, there is no question Cruz is a key part of the Pirates’ future, so losing him until August was devastating. At least in theory, as the Buccos have just kept marching along, winning games, led by returning Pirates legend Andrew McCutchen, 3B defensive whiz Ke’Bryan Hayes, and the aforementioned Reynolds, Suwinski, Joe, Santana, Oviedo, Bednar, and others.
I have no idea what these two teams’ records will be at the All-Star Break, not to mention the end of the season. History suggests that both teams will regress to some extent, perhaps significantly. But for now, it has been exciting to see two unassuming, low-payroll clubs have such early success.
All data is from Baseball-Reference.com, and also their subscription service Stathead.com. If you are a big sports fan, be sure to check out the latest features at Stathead and the Sports Reference family of sites.
Did you know? I wrote a book with the same title as this Substack newsletter / blog: Now Taking the Field: Baseball’s All-Time Dream Teams for All 30 Franchises. It was published in early 2019, by ACTA Sports, the publisher of the annual Bill James Handbook and other popular titles. You can learn more about it at www.NowTakingTheField.com, or buy directly at Amazon and other booksellers.
