MLB #1 Draft Picks All-Time Dream Team
Since 1965 there have been 57 players chosen #1 in round one of the MLB draft. What would an all-time dream team with lineups look like for these players?
Issue #9
The latest annual MLB Draft occurred this past week. The #1 pick was owned by the Baltimore Orioles, and they selected Jackson Holliday, a shortstop from Stillwater (Okla.) High School. He is the son of former major league star Matt Holliday, so obviously has a strong baseball pedigree. Writers for MLB describe him as a five-tool talent, and MLB Network's Harold Reynolds compared him to Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. on the draft show.
This is my first installment in what will be a series of Draft Position Dream Teams and Lineups articles. Here I'm looking at only the #1 picks from the June/July drafts that started in 1965 (see the complete list of 57 players at Baseball-Reference.com)
Here is the Dream Team of these players as I see it (with the team they were drafted by and their drafted position when it is different than where I have them listed):
Right off the bat we see that Jackson Holliday will have a tough time one day cracking this roster. Not surprisingly, there have been many shortstops drafted #1 overall, and several went on to become stars.
On the hand, look at 2B. Out of the 57 players chosen #1 overall since 1965, none of them had 2B as their primary position at the time of the draft (according to baseball-reference.com). And really none of them went on to have distinguished careers at 2B either, so I needed to fiddle a bit to list King, Almon, and Foli here, all of whom played some 2B in the majors, but mostly played at other positions (King played far more often at 3B and 1B, Foli mostly played SS, and Almon was very much a utility player, but played more SS, 3B, and OF than 2B.)
I also made a few other position adjustments, by listing some players like Chipper Jones, Harold Baines, B.J. Surhoff, Phil Nevin, Justin Upton, and Pat Burrell at either their most common position in the majors, or one where they played far more than the one they were drafted at. And I included Ron Blomberg mostly because he was the first DH in baseball history.
As for batting lineups, here is what I'd propose:
Against RHP:
Joe Mauer C (L)
Chipper Jones 3B (S)
Bryce Harper RF (L)
Ken Griffey Jr. CF (L)
Alex Rodriguez SS (R)
Josh Hamilton LF (L)
Adrian Gonzalez 1B (L)
Harold Baines DH (L)
Jeff King 2B (R)
Against LHP:
Joe Mauer C (L)
Chipper Jones 3B (S)
Alex Rodriguez SS (R)
Ken Griffey Jr. CF (L)
Bryce Harper RF (L)
Justin Upton LF (R)
Phil Nevin 1B (R)
Pat Burrell DH (R)
Jeff King 2B (R)
There really isn't a natural leadoff hitter amongst the starting players on this roster, so I went with Mauer and his career .306 average and .388 OBP. I like Chipper as a switch hitter in the second spot.
Then you can arrange all the other sluggers in a variety of ways. There is a natural platoon only at 1B with Gonzalez and Nevin and LF with Hamilton and Upton. I created a platoon at DH, though if you prefer Jeff Burroughs over Pat Burrell as the DH against LHPs, that is admittedly a close call.
As noted earlier, 2B is the real weak spot here. Bill Almon did steal 20+ bases twice in his career, and Tim Foli admittedly hit 36 doubles in 1976 . But I've listed Jeff King in both lineups instead, as he eventually hit for some power at the major league level in his early 30s, with 30, 28, and 24 HRs from 1996-98. Not that these lineups need more power, but his .749 career OPS is just far better than Almon's at .648 or Foli's meager .593.
For pitchers, not surprisingly #1 draft picks, if they make it the majors, tend to be starting pitchers and not relievers. You could argue order, but I think Cole, Price, and Strasburg are clearly the top three here. After that, fleshing out a five-man rotation is not so obvious:
Andy Benes: 155-139, 3.97 ERA, 104 ERA+, 1.312 WHIP (was an all-star in 1993, and then led the league in strikeouts with 189 in strike-shortened 1994, even though he also led the league in losses, with a 6-14 record)
Ben McDonald: 78-70, 3.91 ERA, 115 ERA+, 1.257 WHIP
Floyd Bannister: 134-143, 4.06 ERA, 102 ERA+, 1.326 WHIP (was an all-star in 1982 and led the AL in strikeouts with 209)
Tim Belcher: 146-140, 4.16 ERA, 101 ERA+, 1.344 WHIP
Mike Moore: 161-176, 4.39 ERA, 95 ERA+, 1.418 WHIP (was an all-star and came in third in the AL Cy Young vote in 1989, after going 19-11 with a 2.61 ERA)
Kris Benson: 70-75, 4.42 ERA, 100 ERA+, 1.393 WHIP
Paul Wilson: 40-58, 4.86 ERA, 88 ERA+, 1.450 WHIP
I went with McDonald for the fifth spot over Bannister, Belcher, and Moore primarily because of his significantly higher ERA+ of 115.
The two who I've included as relievers are not particularly impressive.
Luke Hochevar actually was a starter for five seasons before becoming a reliever for three. But his best season came in 2013 for the Royals when he had a 1.92 ERA, 0.825 WHIP, and 82 strikeouts in 70.1 IP.
Matt Anderson posted 22 saves for the Tigers in 2001, but had a 4.82 ERA that year and a 5.19 ERA for his seven-year career.
As noted, this is the first article in a series I'll do covering all-time dream teams and lineups for the various first round draft spots, and then for the full draft rounds as well.
All data is from Baseball-Reference.com, and also their subscription service Stathead.com. If you are a big sports fan, be sure to check out the latest features at Stathead and the Sports Reference family of sites.
Fun analysis, thanks Tom.