Some Notable Numbers from the First Week+
With most teams having played 7 or 8 games so far in 2023, what are some notable results? Which players are standing out for good or bad? What trends are we seeing early in the season?
Issue #78
Through Friday, April 7th, most teams have played either 7 or 8 games, with only the Cubs and Reds lagging with 6 games in. At 8 games, the regular season is almost 1/20th or 5% over, so it is still very early days of course. But here is my take on what we’ve seen so far—various bests, worsts, and other interesting outliers.
Most Surprising Team Results
Tampa Bay Rays are 7-0. Most everyone figured the Rays would again be competitive, even as a small market team with a low payroll: they find ways to pull pieces together and win games each year. But few would have predicted they’d start the season 7-0, the only remaining undefeated team at this point. Nor would anyone—ANYONE—have predicted they’d be leading the majors with 18 HRs so far. Wander Franco has three, but Luke Raley has been a nice surprise by also providing three dingers. The Rays are tied for fourth in BA at .285, but our out-slugging everyone else with .570 mark, far ahead of second-place Dodgers at .500.
Of course their pitching has also generally been good too, with a team ERA of 2.43, ranking third behind only the Brewers and Twins. Their strikeout rate is merely around league average, but they are second best in BB/9 with a 2.3 rate. Interestingly, even with 7-0 record, they are the only team whose relievers have not yet notched a save.
Pittsburgh Pirates are 5-2. I doubt anyone predicted the Pirates would start this well. And regression is likely to come, with the Pirates I think still unlikely to have a winning record this year or to make the playoffs. As I’m personally a long-suffering fan of the Buccos, I have my hopes, but I’m also realistic.
On the pitching side, the Pirates have thus far been within spitting distance of MLB average when it comes to team ERA, K/9, BB/9, etc.— with the exception of saves, where they are tied for the most with 5 (three by David Bednar, one by Duane Underwood, and one by Wil Crowe).
On the offensive side they aren’t far from MLB average in key categories either, including BA, OBP, SLG, HR, SB, and more. Bryan Reynolds has been on fire of course, with 5 HR and a .448/.469/1.103 slash line (ahem, could the Pirates please just give him an extension and lock him up for many more seasons?!) But no one else really stands out, so overall they’ve only outscored their opponents 36-30. So while they don’t seem likely to keep up this winning pace, kudos to the Pirates on their success so far.
Other standout team numbers. Here are a few other team-level stats that have caught my eye:
.305 batting average for the Cardinals is tops so far
.180 batting average for the Royals significantly lags second-worst Tigers at .201.
The Marlins and Giants are striking out the most so far, with last years top-strikeout teams the Pirates, Braves, and particularly the Angels, striking out at significantly lower-rates than in 2022.
The sad Nationals hitters have only 4 HR in 8 games. The Cubs also have only 4 HR so far, but as noted they’ve only played 6 games.
Dodgers pitching is off to a pretty good start, particularly in the control department, as they’ve only walked 11 hitters in 8 games. They are actually below average for strikeout rate, but are fourth in ERA at 2.66 and far ahead of the pack in K/BB ratio (5.55).
Four teams have an ERA over 6.00 so far (yikes!): Tigers 6.20, Phillies 6.21, Athletics 6.33, and White Sox at an embarrassing 7.70. None of those will stay that high all year of course, but it will be interesting to watch which of these staffs can turn things around first (my money is on the Phillies and White Sox, not surprisingly).
MLB-level trends so far
Two things that many predicted for 2023—due to the rule changes around the shift, pitcher pickoff limitations, and the base size increase—do seem to be occurring thus far: more hits (higher batting averages) and more stolen bases.
Batting average is up. While BA overall is at a modest .249 at this point, that is higher than the last three complete seasons which were trending down from .245 in 2020, then .244 in 2021, and .243 in 2022. And it is significantly higher than the sub-.240 levels that we saw for quite a while to start the 2022 season. The theory then was that hitters usually take a while to get their timing right—more so than pitchers coming out of spring training. That seemed true last year, so if it happens again in 2023 we’ll end up with an overall BA somewhat over .250 for the season.
More bases are being stolen. So far we are seeing 0.68 SB per per team per game—which if it holds for the season would be the highest rate since the 0.70 in 1999. The caught stealing rate is at 0.17 per team per game, which is pretty consistent with the past four years—which importantly were the four lowest seasonal rates in baseball history. So if these two numbers hold, MLB could set a new record in 2023 for overall SB success rate.
Stars Putting Up Star-Like Numbers
I already noted Brian Reynolds great hitting so far the Pirates. He isn't the biggest name in baseball of course, but does qualify as a star player. Here are some of the hitters that well-known names and are off to good starts (in order by BA):
Adam Duvall (BOS) - 1.577 OPS, .458 BA, 3 HR, 12 RBI
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 1.572 OPS, .448 BA, 5 HR, 13 RBI
Will Smith (LAD) - 1.377 OPS, .391 BA, 3 HR, 10 RBI
Gleyber Torres (NYY) - 1.279 OPS, .409 BA, 2 HR, 5 SB
Ian Happ (CHC) - 1.256 OPS, .400 BA, only 1 HR
Wander Franco (TBR) - 1.231 OPS, .379 BA, 3 HR
Mike Trout (LAA) - 1.227 OPS, .348 BA, 2 HR
Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 1.155 OPS, .321 BA, 3 HR
Yoan Moncado (CHW) - 1.153 OPS, .400 BA, 2 HR, 4 D
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 1.145 OPS, .419 BA, 2 HR
Matt Olson (ATL) - 1.140 OPS, .313 BA, 3 HR, 4 D
Xander Bogaerts (BOS) - 1.133 OPS, .333 BA, 3 HR
Matt Chapman (TOR) - 1.130 OPS, .452 BA, 0 homers but 6 doubles
The list goes on of course, with Luis Arraez (MIA) hitting .444 and Dansby Swanson (CHC) .417, Luis Robert (CHW) and Pete Alonso (NYM) each having 4 HR, and Ronald Acuna (ATL) and Cedric Mullins (BAL) each having 2 HR and 4 SB so far.
On the pitching side the league leaders in strikeouts are all expected, familiar names: Gerrit Cole (19), Dylan Cease (18), Jacob deGrom (18), Shohei Ohtani (18), Spencer Strider (18).
And naturally the first complete game of the year was thrown by the Marlins 2022 Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara. Last year he had six complete games, which was more than any other TEAM had for the entire season!
Surprising Great Performers So Far
Other hitters are more surprising in their early season success, including:
Brian Anderson (MIL) - 1.593 OPS, .500 BA, 3 HR, 10 RBI
James Outman (LAD) - 1.369 OPS, .350 BA, 2 HR, 2 T
Garrett Mitchell (MIL) - 1.281 OPS, .333 BA, 3 HR
Nolan Gorman (STL) - 1.180 OPS, .350 BA, 2 HR
TJ Friedl (CIN) - 1.126 OPS, .333 BA, 2 HR
Jorge Mateo (BAL) - 1.085 OPS, .350 BA, 2 HR, 5 SB
Also, I mentioned earlier Luke Raley of the Rays with his 3 HR, but Jason Vosler of the Reds also has 3, as does Trayce Thompson of the Dodgers with his all coming in one game. And tied for the MLB lead in SB so far with 5 are Torres and Mateo as noted above, plus Miles Straw of Cleveland.
Off to Slow Starts
On the flipside, there are always players who get off to a slow start to the season, sometimes with just a poor first week or 10 days, sometimes with a poor first month. Here are some notables so far:
Kolten Wong (SEA) - .053 BA (1-19)
Javier Báez (DET) - .080 BA (2-25)
Eduardo Escobar (NYM) - .083 BA (2-24)
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) - .095 BA (2-21) though with 2 HR
Hunter Dozier (KCR) - .095 BA (2-21)
Max Muncy (LAD) - .115 BA (3-26), 1 HR and 13 strikeouts
Josh Bell (CLE) - .115 BA (3-26)
MJ Melendez (KCR) - .120 BA (3-25) and 12 strikeouts
Eric Haase (DET) - .130 BA (3-23), 1 SB
Avisail Garcia (MIA) - .130 BA (3-23) 1 HR
Triston Casas (BOS) - .130 BA (3-23) 1 HR
Kike Hernández (BOS) - .136 BA (3-22) though with 2 HR
Juan Soto (SDP) - .138 BA (4-29), 1 HR, 1 SB
Seeing Juan Soto on this list is troubling given the off-year he had at the plate last year. And while he does have six walks, that isn't making up for the lack of hits like it sort-of did in 2022.
Also, I wonder how long it will be before the Mets bring up 3B prospect Brett Baty and give him a shot at replacing Escobar in the starting lineup? He is off to a good start at AAA Syracuse, going 6-15 with 2 HR, a double, and 2 SB.
Rookie Watch
Every year there are high expectations for various freshman players, with predictions of who might be leading candidates for the Rookie of the Year awards in each league. Again, we've only had 6-8 games for each team so far, but here are the best offensive performances by rookies:
James Outman (LAD) - 1.369 OPS, .350 BA, 2 HR, 2 T, 1 SB
Garrett Mitchell (MIL) - 1.218 OPS, .333 BA, 3 HR
Miguel Vargas (LAD) - 1.082 OPS, .300 BA in only 10 AB, but that is because he has walked a league-leading 11 times, so he has a .682 OBP!
Joey Wiemer (MIL) - .985 OPS, .350 BA, 1 HR, 5 D, 1 SB
Brice Turing (MIL) - .961 OPS, .316 BA, 1 HR, 4 D, 2 SB
Alec Burleson (STL) - .929 OPS, .316 BA, 1 HR
Then here is how some other rookie hitters that were much anticipated are doing in 2023—some clearly are off to slow starts:
Logan O'Hoppe (LAA) - .904 OPS, .250, 2 HR
Spencer Steer (CIN) - .875 OPS, .250, 1 HR
Josh Jung (TEX) - .860 OPS, .269 BA, 2 HR
Ji Hwan Bae (PIT) - .855 OPS, .304 BA, 1 HR, 2 SB
Jordan Walker (STL) - .845 OPS, .321 BA, 1 HR, 1 SB
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) - .751 OPS, .190 BA, 1 HR, and 12 strikeouts
Corbin Carroll (ARI) - .742 OPS, .258 BA, 2 HR, 3 SB
Masataka Yoshida (BOS) - .737 OPS, .250 BA, 1 HR, 2 SB
Esteury Ruiz (OAK) - .734 OPS, .227 BA, 0 HR, 1 SB
Óscar Colás (CHW) - .719 OPS, .269 BA, 1 HR, 1 SB
Blake Sabol (SFG) - .684 OPS, .227 BA, 1 HR
Triston Cases (BOS) - .497 OPS, .130 BA, 1 HR
Ezequiel Tovar (COL) - .480 OPS, .200 BA
Anthony Volpe (NYY) - .423 OPS, .143 BA, 3 SB
On the pitching side it is really to early to look much at these numbers, because starters have only thrown one or at most two games. But for what its worth, here are some of the rookies we are all watching in 2023 (in order by ERA so far):
Jhony Brito (NYY) - 1 GS, 0.00 ERA, 5 IP, 2 H, 6 K - starts again today
Kodai Senga (NYM) - 1 GS, 1.69 ERA, 5.1 IP, 3 H, 8 K - starts again today
Dylan Dodd (ATL) - 1 GS, 1.80 ERA, 5 IP, 6 H, 3 K
Kyle Muller (OAK) - 2 GS, 2.53 ERA, 10.2 IP, 8 H, 8 K
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) - 1 GS, 3.60 ERA, 5 IP, 4 H, 5 K
Hunter Gaddis (CLE) - 2 GS, 3.72 ERA, 9.2 IP, 6 H, 8 K
Hayden Wesneski (CHC) - 1 GS, 5.79 ERA, 4.2 IP, 6 H, 4 K
Hunter Brown (HOU) - 1 GS, 7.71 ERA, 4.2 IP, 6 H, 5 K
Jared Shuster (ATL) - 2 GS, 8.31 ERA, 8.2 IP, 12 H, 5 K
Shintaro Fujinami (OAK) - 1 GS, 30.86 ERA, 2.1 IP, 5 H, 4 K - starts again today
All data is from Baseball-Reference.com, and also their subscription service Stathead.com. If you are a big sports fan, be sure to check out the latest features at Stathead and the Sports Reference family of sites.
Did you know? I wrote a book with the same title as this Substack newsletter / blog: Now Taking the Field: Baseball’s All-Time Dream Teams for All 30 Franchises. It was published in early 2019, by ACTA Sports, the publisher of the annual Bill James Handbook and other popular titles. You can learn more about it at www.NowTakingTheField.com, or buy directly at Amazon and other booksellers.
