The Best Hitters Against MLB's Most Hittable Starting Pitchers
Who has performed the best against MLB's most hittable pitchers? These are good candidates to leverage in games like MLB's Beat the Streak, or daily fantasy sports betting in 2023
Issue #66
I recently wrote about the overall Best Hitters Against Power, Finesse, Flyball, and Groundball Pitchers in the game today. In this article I want to take a more specific look at which hitters have done the best against what we might call the most hittable pitchers in the majors right now. Such hitters, when facing these specific pitchers, might be good bets to get a hit or two—useful for those who play MLB’s game “Beat the Streak”. Or they might be good players to target in daily fantasy baseball games on DraftKings, FanDuel, or otherwise.
First I need to explain who I looked at as “hittable” pitchers. I simply looked at the past two years, 2021-22, and considered those with the highest hits per nine inning pitched (H/9) with a minimum of 20 games started (or at least 15 GS in 2022). I then wanted to analyze only pitchers that as of the time of this writing are likely to get a lot of starts in 2023. So reasons for exclusion were as follows:
Some guys are still free agents, so it is unclear if they will sign with a team, and then even if they do, whether they will be a starter or more often come out of the bullpen.
A few pitchers with high H/9 over the past two years did pretty well in the second half of 2022, or are just guys that I don’t think will be amongst the top 10-20 most hittable starting pitchers in 2023.
Here are the guys I’ve excluded (for now), and the reasons why, in descending order by H/9 over the past two years (all of them had a higher H/9 mark than Kris Bubic, the 10th and final pitcher that I did analyze below.)
Dallas Keuchel - He is a free agent, and it is not clear if he'll pitch in 2023.
Matt Harvey - He is pitching for Team Italy in the WBC... but I think he would have to really impress people there to get a look by an MLB team again.
Bruce Zimmerman - It is not clear how many starts, if any, he will get for the Orioles in 2023.
Chi Chi Gonzalez - He is a non-roster invitee to the Marlins camp, and given their cohort of good arms, it seems very unlikely he’ll get many starts, if he even makes the roster.
Alec Mills - He is currently a free agent.
Spenser Watkins - He could make the Orioles opening day roster, but seems unlikely to be in the starting rotation.
Spencer Howard - He could make the Rangers opening day roster, but seems unlikely to be in the starting rotation.
Bryse Wilson - He is with the Brewers now, and is likely to make the opening day roster, but I suspect will be in a relief role to start the season at least.
Graham Ashcraft - He was a rookie in 2022, so there is limited matchup data to consider. He seems to be lining up as the Reds third starter in 2023, and isn't really someone I'd be looking to target hitting bets against.
Mitch Keller - He could be the Pirates opening day starter, and had a good second half in 2022, posting a 3.09 ERA in 13 GS.
Garrett Richards - He is a free agent, so its not clear where or if he'll pitch in 2023, and if he does, whether he'll be a starter or a reliever.
Erick Fedde - He is currently a free agent.
Michel Pineda - He is currently a free agent.
Jakob Junis - He is with the Giants, but it is unclear what his role will be. Right now, it seems unlikely he'll be in the rotation at the beginning of the year.
Mike Minor - He is currently a free agent.
Paolo Espino - He is with the Nationals, but it is unclear how many starts he'll see in 2023, if any.
Chris Paddack - He is with the Twins and is still recovering from Tommy John surgery from May of last year. So its unclear if he'll pitch much in 2023.
Ryan Feltner - He is in the mix for one of the rotation spots for the Rockies. But only started 2 games in 2021 and 19 games in 2022, so the hitter matchup data is limited.
Carlos Carrasco - He seems in line to be the Mets fourth or fifth starter in 2023. He did pretty well in the second half of 2022, posting a 3.40 ERA in 11 starts, so he's not really someone I'd rank along with the guys below.
The Best Hitters Against 10 of the Most Hittable Starting Pitchers Going Into 2023
So with all of those guys ignored, here are the ten starting pitchers that I considered for this analysis. Interestingly, three are on the Rockies and four are on the Royals. For hitter matchups for each, I required 15 previous plate appearances, though in some cases with limited data I mentioned a few with fewer than 15 PA to also consider.
Rockies — Antonio Senzatela (11.2 H/9, but only 0.8 HR/9)
Senzatela pitches for the Rockies, but actually did worse on the road than at home in 2022. While he lets up a lot of hits, he actually doesn't give up too many HR, relatively speaking. Four solid hitters here:
Christian Walker: 14-27, 2 HR, .519/.536/.889 (7-13 in 2021-22)
Corey Seager: 10-24, 3 HR, .417/.482/.875 (5-9)
Mookie Betts: 7-16, 2 HR, .438/.471/.875 (4-10)
Paul Goldschmidt: 8-21, 2 HR, .381/.458/.762 (3-4)
Nationals — Patrick Corbin (11.2 H/9, 1.8 HR/9)
With few exceptions, Corbin was quite hittable in almost all of his starts in 2022. His last good season came in 2019, so at age 33 it will be interesting to see if he can turn things around. The Nationals still have him for 2023 and 2024, so presumably he'll be in the rotation. An interesting list of hitters here, with slugger Pete Alonso seemingly a nice bet to HR off Corbin in 2023.
Orlando Arcia: 8-17, 2 HR, .471/.526/.882 (4-8 in 2021-22)
Ozzie Albies: 12-28, 3 HR, .429/.448/.929 (7-11)
Pete Alonso: 13-37, 5 HR, .351/.478/.811 (7-14)
Miguel Rojas: 15-35, 3 HR, .429/.524/.743 (4-11)
DJ LeMahieu: 21-54, 6 HR, .389/.421/.833 (3-3)
Trevor Story: 10-30, 3 HR, .333/.444/.800 (3-6)
Christian Yelich: 9-23, 2 HR, .391/.417/.826 (6-8)
Michael Conforto: 10-31, 5 HR, .323/.344/.871 (1-6)
Alec Bohm: 7-20, 2 HR, .350/.409/.750 (6-16)
Justin Turner: 16-39, 2 HR, .410/.477/.667 (4-7)
Also worth noting that in 2021-22, Kyle Schwarber went 5-11 with 2 HR off Corbin, and Austin Hays went 7-12 with a 1.750 OPS.
Royals — Daniel Lynch (10.6 H/9, 1.4 HR/9)
Here is the first of a Royals starters on this list. Lynch has only pitched in the majors for two years, so hitter matchup data is limited.
Carlos Correa: 9-20, 1 HR, .450/.522/.650
A few others with less than 15 PA include Amed Rosario 6-11, Willi Castro 7-14, and José Abreu 6-12.
Rockies — José Ureña (10.4 H/9, 1.1 HR/9)
Another pitcher for the Rockies. Joc Pederson, Ian Happ, and Anthony Rizzo clearly have little trouble with him. Freddie Freeman on the other hand was hitting .419 against Ureña, but then has gone 1-7 against him the pat two seasons.
Joc Pederson: 10-17, 1 HR, .588/.632/.941 (7-10 in 2021-22)
Ian Happ: 7-14, 2 HR, .500/.533/1.000 (2-4)
Anthony Rizzo: 8-16, 1 HR, .500/.600/.875 (1-2)
Freddie Freeman: 14-38, 4 HR, .368/.467/.842 (1-7)
Michael Conforto: 9-22, 2 HR, .409/.480/.773 (0-0)
Ender Inciarte: 9-24, 1 HR, .375/.423/.708 (0-0)
Royals — Brad Keller (10.2 H/9, 1.2 HR/9)
Another pitcher for the Royals, he too doesn't have a lot of hitter matchup data.
Max Kepler: 7-19, 2 HR, .368/.500/.737
A few others with less than 15 PA include Yandy Diaz 6-13, Josh Donaldson 5-11, Luis Arraez 7-14, and Gary Sanchez 5-11.
Rockies — Kyle Freeland (9.9 H/9, 1.2 HR/9)
Another pitcher for the Rockies. The Rangers and Rockies only have one series in 2023 (May 19-21), so watch for a Corey Seager matchup against Kyle Freeland.
Corey Seager: 13-21, 1 HR, .619/.636/.810 (4-5 in 2021-22)
Dansby Swanson: 7-15, 1 HR, .467/.500/.867 (0-3)
Donovan Solano: 8-18, 2 HR, .444/.444/.833 (2-5)
Worth noting that in 2021-22, Thairo Estrado went 5-10 with 3 doubles and 2 HR vs. Freeland.
Royals — Jordan Lyles (9.8 H/9, 1.6 HR/9)
Now with the Royals, his 8th team in 13 years in the Majors.
Matt Chapman 9-21, 5 HR, .429/.458/1.191 (9-17 in 2021-22)
Andrew McCutchen 12-22, 2 HR, .546/.583/.955 (0-0)
Marcus Semien 8-16, 1 HR, .500/.579/.875 (4-6)
Aaron Judge 6-16, 2 HR, .375/.444/.875 (6-16)
Paul Goldschmidt 12-29, 2 HR, .414/.528/.724 (0-0)
Mike Trout 8-21, 2 HR, .381/.409/.810 (5-9)
Cubs — Kyle Hendricks (9.7 H/9, 1.6 HR/9)
Hendricks likely won't be ready by opening day, as he is still coming back from a shoulder injury. But unless things don't go well, I assume he'll be back early in the season. Hendricks has had some good seasons, just not the past two—so in this case it will be important to see he how he does in his first couple of games back.
José Abreu: 15-25, 2 HR, .600/.643/.920 (6-9 in 2021-22)
Joey Votto: 17-41, 6 HR, .415/.561/.976 (6-11)
Jace Peterson: 9-20, 2 HR, .450/.522/1.000 (8-11, with 2 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HR)
Josh Harrison: 11-26, 3 HR, .423/.444/.808 (5-11)
Brandon Belt: 8-20, 1 HR, .400/.478/.750 (1-1)
Adam Frazier: 13-29, 2 HR, .448/.500/.724 (3-7)
Marcell Ozuna: 14-37, 3 HR, .378/.439/.649 (2-5)
Jesse Winker: 10-26, 1 HR, .385/.429/.615 (3-6)
Also worth noting that in 2021-22, Kolten Wong went 7-14 with 1 HR against Hendricks.
Athletics — Paul Blackburn (9.7 H/9, 1.4 HR/9 in 2021-22)
Blackburn might actually end up as the A's opening day starter, and he admittedly did better in his 21 starts in 2022 than in his 9 starts in 2021.
Jose Altuve: 6-13, 1 HR, .462/.533/.692 (4-11 in 2021-22)
Also worth noting that Yordan Alvarez has gone 4-12 with 3 HR against Blackburn.
Royals — Kris Bubic (9.6 H/9, 1.4 HR/9)
Bubic is the fourth Royals starter on this list. He will presumably be battling with the guys above—Lynch, Lyles, Keller, and others—for a spot in the rotation. So it remains to be seen how often he'll be a starter in 2023. Again, limited matchup data is available so just one player of note with 15 or more plate appearances:
Tim Anderson: 6-15, 1 HR, .400/.438/.733 (2-8 in 2021-22)
For players with fewer than 15 PA, Ty France has gone 7-10 against Bubic, Mitch Garver has gone 5-11 with 2 HR, Luis Arraez has gone 6-11, and Jorge Polanco has gone 7-13.
All data is from Baseball-Reference.com, and also their subscription service Stathead.com. If you are a big sports fan, be sure to check out the latest features at Stathead and the Sports Reference family of sites.
Did you know? I wrote a book with the same title as this Substack newsletter / blog: Now Taking the Field: Baseball’s All-Time Dream Teams for All 30 Franchises. It was published in early 2019, by ACTA Sports, the publisher of the annual Bill James Handbook and other popular titles. You can learn more about it at www.NowTakingTheField.com, or buy directly at Amazon and other booksellers.
I can't argue with the numbers, but God is it depressing to see so many Royals on the list of most hittable pitchers. Not surprising, just depressing.