What to Watch for on Opening Day 2023

Which hitters have done well against their opening day opposing pitcher? And who has been doing particularly well during spring training?

Issue #75

We’ve had an interesting spring training period, what with the new rules around the pitch clock, no extreme shifting, etc., the World Baseball Classic tournament excitement, and a few key injuries such as the Mets’ Edwin Diaz, the Phillies’ Rhys Hoskins, and the Astros’ Jose Altuve. But now the 2023 regular season gets going on Thursday, March 30th, and as always there are some intriguing matchups—both from a starting pitchers and overall team perspective. While the Rockies are on the road, the Reds, Red Sox, and Dodgers are at home, giving us some high-offense ballparks right off the bat. On the hand, the Mariners, Padres, A’s, and Cardinals are also hosting their first series—and their home stadiums are pitchers parks.

Its opening day, so excitement and adrenaline will be running high. Anything can happen—perhaps more so than any other day during the season. But here are some thoughts based on past performance numbers, a consideration of spring training results (through Friday 3/24), and so on—subject to change if teams make last minute pitching changes, etc.

Games most likely to be pitching duels

Blue Jays at Cardinals

Busch Stadium is a below-average offensive ballpark and this pitching match-up is solid. Two nuances: Manoah has never pitched in St. Louis, and Mikolas just signed a two year extension, so hopefully is feeling good.

• Alek Manoah - 5 G, 20.1 IP, 16 H, 21 K, 3.10 ERA in spring training

• Miles Mikolas - 3 G, 12 IP, 8 H, 8 K, 0.00 ERA and only 1 BB in spring training

Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt were busy with the WBC, so the big news in Cardinals camp was rookie Jordan Walker getting a lot of playing time and doing pretty well with it, hitting .295 with 3 HR and 5 doubles over 18 games.

Guardians at Mariners

T-Mobile Park in Seattle is even more below average offensively speaking—arguably the lowest in all of baseball. And we’ve got two solid aces going, though Castillo has given up some runs during spring training:

• Shane Bieber - 4 G, 16.2 IP, 9 H, 14 K, 1.62 ERA in spring training

• Luis Castillo - 5 G, 17 IP, 19 H, 18 K, 4.76 ERA in spring training

Spring training stats don’t mean much really, but here are two Mariners who have put up good numbers:

• Julio Rodriguez - 10 G, 13-28, .464 average, 2 HR, 5 D in spring training

• Jarred Kelenic - 16 G, 17-42, .405 average, 4 HR, 2 T, 2 D in spring training

Other great pitching matchups

Giants at Yankees

Cole certainly seems more dialed in and ready to go than Webb, and this is Webb’s first game pitching in the Bronx too:

• Logan Webb - 4 G, 13 IP, 14 H, 11 K, 5.54 ERA in spring training

• Gerrit Cole - 5 G, 21.2 IP, 20 H, 27 K, 3.32 ERA and only 1 BB in spring training

Phillies at Rangers

Hopefully deGrom is fully ready to go after minimal game time this spring. This is Nola’s first game pitching at Texas’ Globe Life Field.

• Aaron Nola - 4 G, 11.2 IP, 8 H, 11 K, 3.86 ERA in spring training

• Jacob deGrom - 1 G, 3 IP, 2 H, 4 K, 0.00 ERA in spring training

Trea Turner was outstanding in the WBC, so it will be interesting to see how he gets going with the Phillies. With Hoskins out with injury, there is an opportunity for 27-year-old sophomore Darick Hall to step up—and he has done well during spring training, batting .313 with 5 HR in 17 games.

Every analysis I’ve read about what the elimination of extreme infield shifts will mean for various hitters has concluded that Corey Seager will see a boost to his average in 2023. And so far in spring his numbers look good: .469/.519/.745 slash line with 4 HR in 18 games.

Mets at Marlins

This pitching matchup would have looked great regardless, but both of these aces have been dominating this spring too:

• Max Scherzer - 4 G, 17.2 IP, 16 H, 25 K, 1.53 ERA and only 2 BB in spring training

• Sandy Alcantara - 4 G, 13.1 IP, 6 H, 15 K, 0.68 ERA in spring training

Francisco Lindor has hit pretty well in Miami over the past two years: .339/.418/.593 slash line with 3 HR and 6 doubles in 15 games. And he has even hit Alcantara a bit over his career: 7-23 with a HR and 2 doubles.

White Sox at Astros

Suffice to say, Valdez looks far more ready for the season to start than Cease, who has had significant control issues this spring:

• Dylan Cease - 5 G, 16 IP, 18 H, 17 K, 7.31 ERA and a very high 12 BB in spring training

• Framber Valdez - 5 G, 19.1 IP, 19 H, 16 K, 2.33 ERA in spring training

Diamondbacks at Dodgers

Like Cease, Gallen has had control issues this spring, and as noted Dodger Stadium is an above-average offensive ballpark—though one where Gallen has a good history with a 2.10 ERA in 4 career starts.

• Zac Gallen - 4 G, 16.1 IP, 21 H, 10 K, 8.27 ERA, and a very high 10 BB in spring training

• Julio Urias - 3 G, 11.2 IP, 13 H, 6 K, 3.86 ERA in spring training

The Corbin Carroll era in Arizona is getting underway, and the NL ROY favorite has looked good this spring: .390/.510/.659 slash line, with no homers, but 5 doubles, 3 triples, and 5 stolen bases in 15 games. 23-year-old catcher Gabriel Moreno has also looked good, hitting .417 with 3 HR in 9 games.

I’ll also note that Christian Walker has definitely enjoyed hitting at Dodger Stadium over his career: .311/.367/.700 with 11 HR in 98 PA. He just hasn’t done well against Urias, with 3 hits in 19 at-bats.

Tigers at Rays

McClanahan has put up good numbers in limited spring action. But Rodriguez has done just as well and in twice the innings pitched—so while I think McClanahan is likely to end the year with better numbers, I consider this an interesting opening day matchup.

• Eduardo Rodriguez - 5 G, 18.1 IP, 20 H, 21 K, 1.47 ERA in spring training

• Shane McClanahan - 3 G, 9.2 IP, 4 H, 10 K, 0.93 ERA in spring training

Rockies at Padres

Marquez is looking sharp this spring, and he’s only just turned 28 years old. Given that his K-rate was down quite a bit last year, I doubt he’ll get back to his 2018 form when he went 14-11 with 230 strikeouts, but perhaps he’ll put up his second best season so far? Given that Petco is a pitchers’ park, I could see these two guys putting up a fair number of opening day strikeouts—even with the strong lineup that San Diego is boasting this year.

• German Marquez - 4 G, 17.0 IP, 11 H, 20 K, 0.53 ERA and only 2 BB in spring training

• Blake Snell - 4 G, 16 IP, 13 H, 17 K, 5.63 ERA in spring training

I’m glad to see Kris Bryant is healthy and hitting well this spring: .344 with 4 HR in 13 games. And it will be interesting to see what Mike Moustakas can do with Coors as his home field, as he too his hitting well this spring: .367 with 2 HR and 4 doubles in 10 games.

For the Padres, Jake Cronenworth has done well this spring with a .419/.479/.721 slash line, 2 HR, and 5 doubles in 16 games. And he has hit Marquez well during his career too: 6-17 (.353), with 2 HR, a triple, and a double.

Where are we most likely to see a lot of offense?

Pirates at Reds

Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is right up there with Coors in Colorado in creating high scoring games these days. And although Keller has looked pretty good this spring, in his career he has generally not done well pitching in Cincinnati: 8.18 ERA in 5 starts, 22 IP, 29 H, 20 K, 17 BB, with a .341 average and 5 HR allowed (what is the deal with all the walks?!)

There are very high expectations for Greene’s second year in the majors, but he too was vulnerable when pitching at home in Cincinnati last year: 4.70 ERA with 12 HR allowed in 11 starts. He dominated the Pirates twice last year, including no-hitting them through 7.1 IP in one game—but both of those were in Pittsburgh, not Cincy.

• Mitch Keller - 5 G, 15.2 IP, 14 H, 20 K, 3.45 ERA and only 1 BB in spring training

• Hunter Greene - 5 G, 17.1 IP, 15 H, 14 K, 3.12 ERA in spring training

Has Ke’Bryan Hayes been working on increasing his bat launch angle this spring? Sure seems like it: .353 average with 4 HR in 12 games.

Orioles at Red Sox

Fenway is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball, though it hasn’t been particularly troubling for these two pitchers during their careers. Kluber has posted a 3.53 ERA in 7 starts, with 44 K in 43.1 IP. Gibson has done even better with a 1.57 ERA in 4 starts, with 23 K and only 14 hits allowed in 28.2 IP (a stingy .143 opponents average). Both have done OK in spring training, so hard to say whether this one will produce much offense or not.

• Kyle Gibson - 5 G, 18.2 IP, 22 H, 15 K, 3.86 ERA with only 1 BB in spring training

• Corey Kluber - 4 G, 12.2 IP, 13 H, 14 K, 2.13 ERA in spring training

Can Adley Rutschman convert some of his many doubles in 2022 into HR in 2023? He’s been hitting .325 with 4 HR (and oddly no doubles) in 16 spring games. Ryan Mountcastle on the other hand has had lots of doubles this spring: .419 average, 2 HR, and 7 doubles.

For the Red Sox, it looks like Triston Casas is ready to take over at 1B, as he has slashed .360/.400/..640 with 3 HR and 5 doubles in 17 spring games. And Adam Duvall has 4 HR this spring—how many will he hit now that he calls Fenway his home? Limited sample, but in his career he has had 4 HR in 4 games in Boston.

Lopsided opening day pitching matchups

Braves at Nationals

Corbin has been OK this spring, but he was so awful last year and really the past few years. Fried has limited IP this spring, but his numbers look great—and this is really an overall lopsided matchup between the two teams, not just the starting pitchers.

• Max Fried - 3 G, 11.1 IP, 4 H, 14 K, 0.00 ERA in spring training

• Patrick Corbin - 4 G, 14 IP, 15 H, 13 K, 3.86 ERA, and only 1 BB in spring training

Matt Olson has been on fire this spring, slashing .472/.548/1.111 with 7 HR in 14 games. He’s also done well at Nationals Park over the past two seasons: .310/.348/.619 with 4 HR in 10 games. And against Corbin in his career he is 5-9 with a double.

Orlando Arcia was recently given the starting SS job for the Braves, with Vaughn Grissom starting the season in AAA. Arcia could get off to a good start, as in 2021-22 he has gone 11-24 (.458) with 5 HR in 9 games at Nationals Park. And he’s got to like hitting against Corbin on opening day, as over his career he is 8-17 (.471) with 2 HR against him.

Angels at Athletics

Ohtani has mostly been busy with the WBC and seems ready to go. Oakland Coliseum is a pitchers’ park, and one where Ohtani has done pretty well, holding Athletics batters to a .174 average over six starts in his career. Not an ideal stadium for the new look Angels lineup to debut, but they have loaded up with some interesting additional hitters, and they are getting Anthony Rendon back, to help support Ohtani, Trout, Ward, and company on offense.

The Athletics on the other hand… their roster is one of the weakest-looking at the outset of a season that I’ve seen in some time. The over/under in Vegas seems to be around 60 wins for their season, but to me that feels like a stretch. And while lefty Kyle Muller pitched well coming up through the Braves farm system, his spring numbers sure aren’t what you want to see in an opening day starter.

• Shohei Ohtani - 1 G, 2.1 IP, 0 H, 2 K, 0.00 ERA in spring training

• Kyle Muller - 5 G, 18 IP, 30 H, 15 K, 6.50 ERA in spring training

Hopefully Rendon can finally stay healthy, as his spring work indicates he is back as an offensive force: .452/.514/.774, with 2 HR and 4 doubles in 13 games.

Brewers at Cubs

Burnes is predicted to be a Cy Young contender again this year, and he could get off to a good start as he has done well at Wrigley in his career: 24 IP, 14 H, 36 K, 2.63 ERA, .171 opposing batting average, and 2 HR allowed in 95 PA.

• Corbin Burnes - 5 G, 19 IP, 23 H, 16 K, 4.74 ERA in spring training

• Marcus Stroman - 3 G, 10 IP, 9 H, 10 K, 0.90 ERA in spring training

Willy Adames hasn’t done much this spring, but he hits well at Wrigley, slashing .350/.413/.625 with 3 HR and 2 doubles in 10 games. And he likes batting against Stroman: 7-13 with 2 HR.

Twins at Royals

The Twins are opening with the pitcher they acquired for fan-favorite Luis Arraez, so I hope the 27 year old’s debut goes well. The Royals on the other I think are trotting out the 39-year old Greinke for opening day more to honor his great career.

• Pablo Lopez - 4 G, 9 IP, 7 H, 9 K, 4.00 ERA in spring training

• Zach Greinke - 4 G, 11.1 IP, 13 H, 11 K, 8.74 ERA in spring training

The Twins’ Nick Gordon has done OK this spring, but sure seems to have Greinke’s number as he’s gone 7-11 with 1 HR and 2 doubles, so hopefully he’ll have a starting role somewhere on opening day.

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Did you know? I wrote a book with the same title as this Substack newsletter / blog: Now Taking the Field: Baseball’s All-Time Dream Teams for All 30 Franchises. It was published in early 2019, by ACTA Sports, the publisher of the annual Bill James Handbook and other popular titles. You can learn more about it at www.NowTakingTheField.com, or buy directly at Amazon and other booksellers.