Who gets the most HRs, Hits, and Strikeouts in Bunches?
Which active players most often have 2+ HR games, 3+ hit games, or 11+ strikeout games?
Issue #61
In starting to prepare for the 2023 season, and the betting I might want to do, I decided to analyze which players most often do things in bunches. I focused on three simple stats: HRs and Hits for batters, and Strikeouts for pitchers.
Who most often hits 2+ HR in a game?
There are lots of factors that would impact the likelihood of a player hitting two or more HR in a game: the power of the hitter, the HR-allowing tendency of the starting pitcher and the likely relievers he will face, the ballpark’s dimensions, the wind direction that day, and more. But overall, who most often hits 2+ HR in a game?
Here are the players who have had the most 2+ HR games from 2020-2022 (keeping in mind that 2020 was a very short season):
Aaron Judge, 18 in 333 games = 5.41%
Kyle Schwarber, 15 in 327 games = 4.59%
Pete Alonso, 10 in 369 games = 2.71%
Anthony Santander, 9 in 299 games = 3.01%
Salvador Perez, 9 in 312 games = 2.88%
Shohei Ohtani, 9 in 356 games = 2.53%
Manny Machado, 9 in 363 games = 2.48%
George Springer, 8 in 262 games = 3.05%
Teoscar Hernández, 8 in 324 games = 2.47%
Rafael Devers, 8 in 354 games = 2.26%
José Ramírez, 8 in 367 games = 2.18%
Yordan Alvarez, 8 in 281 games = 2.85%
I wasn’t surprised to see Judge and Schwarber with both the most 2+ HR games and by far the highest % of games too. To me the surprise name on this list is Anthony Santander, though he did slug a career high 33 HR in 2022.
Narrowing the view to just 2022, here are the leaders:
Aaron Judge, 11 in 157 games = 7.01%
Kyle Schwarber, 8 in 155 games = 5.16%
Shohei Ohtani, 6 in 157 games = 3.82%
Rowdy Tellez, 5 in 153 games = 3.27%
Anthony Santander, 5 in 152 games = 3.29%
Yordan Alvarez, 5 in 135 games = 3.70%
Mike Trout, 4 in 119 games = 3.36%
Eugenio Suárez, 4 in 150 games = 2.67%
Carlos Santana, 4 in 131 games = 3.05%
Byron Buxton, 4 in 92 games = 4.35%
Mookie Betts, 4 in 142 games = 2.82%
Judge’s epic 62-HR season not surprisingly included 11 games with 2+ HR, which was 7% of the games he played. Schwarber’s distant-second best 46 HR included 8 games with 2+ HR. Mike Trout still has a lot of power, when he isn’t injured. Speaking of which, the seemingly always injured Byron Buxton slugged 28 HR in the 92 games he played in 2022, and that included 4 games with 2+ HR. And interestingly, 36-year old Santana split his time between the Royals and Mariners, hitting 19 HR in 131 games, including 4 games with 2+ HR. That is definitely an odd finding, since Santana continues to walk a lot (.202 batting average but a .316 OBP in 2022).
Who most often collects 3+ hits in a game?
As with HRs, there are several factors that would impact the likelihood of a player having three or more hits in a game: the hitting capability of the batter, the hit-allowing tendency of the starting pitcher and the likely relievers he will face, and to some extent the ballpark’s characteristics and weather for that day—though I think those factors are likely less relevant for hits than for HRs.
Here are the players who have had the most 3+ hit games from 2020-2022:
Freddie Freeman, 40 in 378 games = 10.58%
Trea Turner, 37 in 308 games = 12.01%
Tim Anderson, 35 in 251 games = 13.94%
Amed Rosario, 34 in 340 games = 10.00%
Paul Goldschmidt, 34 in 367 games = 9.26%
Xander Bogaerts, 33 in 350 games = 9.43%
Randy Arozarena, 32 in 317 games = 10.09%
Starling Marte, 31 in 266 games = 11.65%
Whit Merrifield, 30 in 361 games = 8.31%
Dansby Swanson, 29 in 382 games = 7.59%
Alex Verdugo, 28 in 351 games = 7.98%
Teoscar Hernández, 28 in 324 games = 8.64%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., 28 in 319 games = 8.78%
Ty France, 28 in 335 games = 8.36%
Luis Arraez, 28 in 297 games = 9.43%
On a per-game basis, Tim Anderson is the clear leader here, collecting 3+ hits in almost 14% of his games played. I wasn’t surprised to also see other high batting average hitters in this list like Freddie Freeman (.317 from 2020-22), Trea Turner (.316), or Luis Arraez (.308). But others were less predictable, like Amed Rosario (.279) and Randy Arozarena (.269), who both have had 3+ hits in over 10% of their games despite relatively lower batting averages.
Narrowing the view to just 2022, here are the leaders in games with 3+ hits:
Freddie Freeman, 20 in 159 games = 12.58%
Amed Rosario, 17 in 153 games = 11.11%
Luis Arraez, 17 in 144 games = 11.81%
Jeff McNeil, 16 in 148 games = 10.81%
Steven Kwan, 16 in 147 games = 10.88%
Xander Bogaerts, 16 in 150 games = 10.67%
Gio Urshela, 15 in 144 games = 10.42%
Paul Goldschmidt, 15 in 151 games = 9.93%
Harold Castro, 15 in 120 games = 12.50%
Jose Altuve, 15 in 141 games = 10.64%
Dansby Swanson, 14 in 162 games = 8.64%
Julio Rodríguez, 14 in 132 games = 10.61%
Austin Riley, 14 in 159 games = 8.81%
Manny Machado, 14 in 150 games = 9.33%
Nico Hoerner, 14 in 135 games = 10.37%
Randy Arozarena, 14 in 153 games = 9.15%
Freeman again topped the list, this time in both total 3+ hit games and in % of games. But coming in a close second in the latter we see Harold Castro, a .271 hitter for the Tigers in 2022, who collected 3+ hits in 12.5% of his games. He has signed as a free agent with the Rockies for 2023, so it will be interesting to see how that impacts his ability to collect hits in bunches—especially as it seems he won’t be a starter, and will be used in a utility role off the bench.
I was also a little surprised to see Gio Urshela high on this list with 15 games in which he had 3+ hits (10.42% of his games played). As with Castro, he has switched teams for 2023 and is now with the Angels, where he’ll be competing for playing time across their infield.
Who most often gets 11+ strikeouts in a game?
Why 11+ strikeouts per game? No particular reason. I first looked at 9+, but that happens pretty often these days, so the betting odds you’d have there won’t be that impressive. So I looked at games with 11+ strikeouts, and here is what I found for pitchers from 2020-2022:
Gerrit Cole, 13 in 75 GS = 17.33%
Shane Bieber, 12 in 59 GS = 20.34%
Jacob deGrom, 11 in 38 GS = 28.95%
Corbin Burnes, 11 in 70 GS = 15.71%
Max Scherzer, 8 in 65 GS = 12.31%
Carlos Rodón, 8 in 57 GS = 14.04%
Robbie Ray, 7 in 75 GS = 9.33%
Shohei Ohtani, 7 in 53 GS = 13.21%
Dylan Cease, 7 in 76 GS = 9.21%
Blake Snell, 6 in 62 GS = 9.68%
Yu Darvish, 6 in 72 GS = 8.33%
Sandy Alcantara, 6 in 72 GS = 8.33%
I wasn’t surprised by either of the leaders here: Gerrit Cole in having the most games with 11+ strikeouts, and Jacob deGrom in having 11+ strikeouts in (by far) the highest percentage of his starts. Looking at just the 2022 season, here are the pitchers with 4 or more starts with 11+ strikeouts:
Shohei Ohtani, 7 in 28 GS = 25.00%
Gerrit Cole, 6 in 33 GS = 18.18%
Spencer Strider, 5 in 20 GS = 25.00%
Carlos Rodón, 5 in 31 GS = 16.13%
Max Scherzer, 4 in 23 GS = 17.39%
Charlie Morton, 4 in 31 GS = 12.90%
Zac Gallen, 4 in 31 GS = 12.90%
Dylan Cease, 4 in 32 GS = 12.50%
Corbin Burnes, 4 in 33 GS = 12.12%
Ohtani had that incredible summer run of high-K games in 2022, so that explains his leading this list. Strider wasn’t in the Braves starting rotation at the beginning of the year, but once he joined, he dominated hitters and had 11+ strikeouts in 5 of his 20 starts. Here are the pitchers from the first list who didn’t have 4 or more starts with 11+ strikeouts in 2022:
Blake Snell, 3 in 24 GS = 12.50%
Yu Darvish, 1 in 30 GS = 3.33%
Sandy Alcantara, 3 in 32 GS = 9.38%
Jacob deGrom, 3 in 11 GS = 27.27%
Shane Bieber, 2 in 31 GS = 6.45%
Robbie Ray, 2 in 32 GS = 6.25%
Jacob deGrom only started 11 games, but had 11+ Ks in three of them. On the other hand, it seems Yu Darvish, Shane Bieber, and Robbie Ray are no longer racking up the big K totals as much as in previous years.
In the end, I’m looking forward to placing some bets during the 2023 season when enough factors align with say Judge, Schwarber, Trout, Santander, or Buxton hitting 2+ HR in a game; Freeman, Anderson, Turner, Rosario, or Arraez getting 3+ Hits in a game; or Cole, deGrom, Ohtani, Burnes, Scherzer, Strider, or Rodón getting 11+ Ks in a game. I’ll also keep an eye on Cincinnati flamethrower Hunter Greene, who only had one game with 11 K during his 2022 rookie season, but had 164 K in 125.2 IP. If he can pitch in 6+ IP per start more often, then the 11+ K games will come.
All data is from Baseball-Reference.com, and also their subscription service Stathead.com. If you are a big sports fan, be sure to check out the latest features at Stathead and the Sports Reference family of sites.
Did you know? I wrote a book with the same title as this Substack newsletter / blog: Now Taking the Field: Baseball’s All-Time Dream Teams for All 30 Franchises. It was published in early 2019, by ACTA Sports, the publisher of the annual Bill James Handbook and other popular titles. You can learn more about it at www.NowTakingTheField.com, or buy directly at Amazon and other booksellers.
