Will a Jackson Join the Age-20 All-Time Dream Team?
Rookies Jackson Chourio and Jackson Holliday are each only 20 years old. What are the best numbers put up by other 20 year-olds in the past?
Issue #175
There are actually three rookies this year named Jackson, and all are currently 20 years old:
Jackson Chourio, RF, Brewers
Jackson Holliday, 2B, Orioles
Jackson Merrill, CF, Padres
However, Jackson Merrill will turn 21 very soon, on April 19th. According to the policy of sites like baseball-reference.com, his 2024 season will be considered his age-21 season. The cutoff for this is I think quite reasonable: the player’s age at midnight of June 30th of that year.
The other two Jacksons above more recently turned 20—Chourio in March, and Holliday in December. So 2024 is there age-20 season. Chourio made the Brewers opening day roster, and so far has been productive, if not outstanding: 12 games, 2 HR, 2 SB, 9 RBI, 5 runs, with only a .240/.278/.380 slash line and 81 OPS+. Holliday played 10 games at AAA, with 2 HR, 5 doubles, an impressive 18 runs, and a .333/.482/.595 slash line. In his first four games since being called up he has gone only 1-15 with a single and three runs scored—and nine strikeouts.
While neither Chourio or Holliday are off to great starts yet, it is still early. How good would each have to be this year to be considered amongst the best MLB 20-year-olds of all time? Turns out the answer is “very good,” making it unlikely they will join the following Age-20 All-Time Dream Team I’ve put together:
Granted, some of these players—like Mel Ott, Ty Cobb, Dwight Gooden, and others—also played in the majors as teenagers (as did some not included above, such as Robin Yount). But those seasons would count towards an Age-19 Dream Team, or perhaps one covering all teenage years together—a project for another day.
For this Age-20 seasons Dream Team, most positions are well-stocked with players who put up great numbers. I ranked the position players at each position according to their baseball-reference.com WAR score. The highest overall WAR for the position players above was Mike Trout’s 2012 campaign at 10.5, followed by Álex Rodríguez’ 1996 at 9.4, and then a little surprisingly, Al Kaline’s 1955 at 8.2.
Here are the top 15 players above ranked by baseball-reference WAR, and with bolding indicating where each led his league in each stat:
Mike Trout, CF, 2012: 10.5 WAR, 168 OPS+, .326/.399/.564, 30 HR, 129 R, 49 SB
Álex Rodríguez’, SS, 1996: 9.4 WAR, 161 OPS+, .358/.414/.631, 36 HR, 123 RBI, 15 SB, 54 D, 141 R
Al Kaline, RF, 1955: 8.2 WAR, 162 OPS+, .340/.421/.546, 27 HR, 102 RBI, 200 H, 121 R
Mel Ott, RF, 1929: 7.2 WAR, 165 OPS+, .328/.449/.635, 42 HR, 151 RBI, 37 D, 138 R, 113 BB
Ty Cobb, RF, 1907: 6.8 WAR, 167 OPS+, .350/.380/.468, 5 HR, 119 RBI, 53 SB, 14 T, 212 H, 99 R
Ted Williams, RF, 1939: 6.7 WAR, 160 OPS+, .327/.436/.609, 31 HR, 145 RBI, 44 D, 131 R
Frank Robinson, LF, 1956: 6.5 WAR, 143 OPS+, .290/.379/.558, 38 HR, 83 RBI, 122 R
Vada Pinson, CF, 1959: 6.5 WAR, 129 OPS+, .316/.371/.509, 20 HR, 84 RBI, 21 SB, 47 D, 205 H, 131 R
Jason Heyward, RF, 2010: 6.4 WAR, 131 OPS+, .277/.393/.456, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 11 SB
Mickey Mantle, CF, 1952: 6.4 WAR, 162 OPS+, .311/.394/.530, 23 HR, 87 RBI, 37 D, 94 R
Manny Machado, 3B, 2013: 5.9 WAR, 102 OPS+, .283/.314/.432, 14 HR, 71 RBI, 51 D, 88 R
Ken Griffey Jr.., CF, 1990: 5.2 WAR, 136 OPS+, .300/.366/.481, 22 HR, 80 RBI, 16 SB, 91 R
Sherry Magee, LF, 1905: 5.1 WAR, 135 OPS+, .299/.354/.420, 5 HR, 98 RBI, 48 SB, 17 T, 100 R
Juan Soto, LF, 2019: 5.0 WAR, 142 OPS+, .282/.401/.548, 34 HR, 110 RBI, 12 SB, 108 BB, 110 R
Johnny Bench, C, 5.0 WAR, 117 OPS+, .275/.311/.433, 15 HR, 82 RBI, 40 D
So that is a lot of OF, and one each at SS, 3B, and C. For whatever reason, the right side of the infield was notably weaker with Roberto Alomar (4.4 WAR in 1988) being the top 2B and Dick Hoblitzell (4.1 WAR in 1909) getting the nod at 1B. The latter hit .308 with 11 triples, a 144 OPS+, and 17 SB during the dead-ball era. Orlando Cepeda put up more impressive raw numbers, but in a different time: 25 HR, 96 RBI, 15 SB, a league-leading 38 doubles, and a .312/.342/.512 slash line and 125 OPS+.
The third best WAR for an age-20 1B came from old-timer Jake Beckley, who in 1888 slashed .343/.363/.417 with a 157 OPS+ and 20 SB in only 71 games. That amounted to a 2.7 WAR, a bit better than Stuffy McInnis’ 2.2 WAR in 1911 when he hit .321/.361/.425 with a 121 OPS+ and 23 SB.
I included up to five guys at some of the other position player spots, including some all-time greats like Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., Jimmie Foxx, and Rogers Hornsby, plus other Hall of Famers like Adrián Beltré, John McGraw, Travis Jackson, Bill Mazeroski, Bobby Doerr, and Joe Torre. Plus contemporary stars like Ronald Acuña Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., and Carlos Correa.
And then there is LF Claudell Washington and C Butch Wynegar. Washington actually played a mix of OF and DH for the Athletics in 73 games in his age-19 season in 1974, and then was an All-Star in 1975 when he slashed .308/.345/.424 with a 119 OPS+ and what would be a career high 40 SB. Wynegar was an All-Star as a rookie for the Twins in 1976, hitting 10 HR with 69 RBI, a .260/.356/.363 slash line and 109 OPS+—not huge numbers, but good enough for the third spot on this age-20 all-time dream team roster.
A few other position players deserve honorable mention for their age-20 season exploits, including:
OF Jimmy Sheckard led the NL with 77 SB in 1899
RF Tony Conigliaro led the AL with a relatively modest 32 HR in 1965
CF César Cedeño led the NL with 40 doubles in 1971
There are also a few major leaguers from the Negro Leagues that deserve honorable mention for their age-20 seasons. The stats available at baseball-reference.com indicate shorter seasons, so they didn’t play enough to rack up as much WAR to make the above roster, but these are some impressive numbers:
Wilson Redus, LF, 1925: 12 HR and 62 RBI in 77 games, .372/.453/.624, 186 OPS+
Willie Wells, SS, 1925: 8 HR and 53 RBI in 87 games, .290/.386/.459, 126 OPS+
Cando López, CF, 1926: 5 HR and 29 RBI in 62 games, .349/.384/.467, 119 OPS+
As for the best age-20 seasons for starting pitchers, I decided to not go strictly by WAR, as there is more debate about it’s usefulness for pitchers. I also ignored seasons from the 19th century, since pitchers back then often started 45-60+ games making comparisons with modern-era pitchers’ seasons rather difficult.
So with those caveats, here are the highlights of the age-20 seasons for the nine starting pitchers I listed above:
Dwight Gooden, 1985: 24-4 W-L, 1.53 ERA, 229 ERA+, 16 CG, 276.2 IP, 268 K, 0.965 WHIP
Bob Feller, 1939: 24-9 W-L, 2.85 ERA, 154 ERA+, 24 CG, 296.2 IP, 246 K, 1.244 WHIP
Harry Krause, 1909: 18-8, 1.39 ERA, 174 ERA+, 16 CG, 213 IP, 139 K, 0.939 WHIP
José Fernández, 2013: 12-6, 2.19 ERA, 176 ERA+, 0 CG, 172.2 IP, 187 K, 0.979 WHIP
Fernando Valenzuela, 1981 (strike-shortened season): 13-7 W-L, 2.48 ERA, 135 ERA+, 11 CG, 192.1 IP, 180 K, 1.045 WHIP
Don Drysdale, 1957: 17-9, 2.69 ERA, 153 ERA+, 9 CG, 221 IP, 148 K, 1.167 WHIP
Christy Mathewson, 1901: 20-17, 2.41 ERA, 138 ERA+, 36 CG, 336 IP, 221 K, 1.146 WHIP
Walter Johnson, 1908: 14-14, 1.65 ERA, 138 ERA+, 23 CG, 256.1 IP, 160 K, 0.964 WHIP
Dennis Eckersley, 1975: 13-7, 2.60 ERA, 144 ERA+, 6 CG, 186.2 IP, 152 K, 1.270 WHIP
Nice group here, with lots of all-time greats like Johnson, Mathewson, and Feller, and other Hall of Famers like Drysdale and Eckersley (who of course began his career as a starter before becoming a dominating reliever). I think Gooden’s 1985 season is clearly the best of the bunch, but after that you could debate how to rank the rest.
And there were many others that you could make the case should have been included, in addition to or in place of those that I listed. The following at least deserve honorable mention, in no particular order: Babe Ruth (1915), Bert Blyleven (1971), Dave Rozema (1977), Frank Tanana (1974), Milt Pappas (1959), Ray Sadecki (1961), Jerry Walker (1959), Zack Greinke (2004), Rick Ankiel (2000), Gary Nolan (1968), Don Gullett (1971), CC Sabathia (2001), Chet Nichols (1951), Jim Palmer (1966), Rick Porcello (2009), Smokey Joe Wood (1910).
As with the position players discussed above, I also wanted to mention three major league age-20 seasons from the Negro Leagues:
Bill Holland, 1921: 15-14 W-L, 3.39 ERA, 114 ERA+, 22 CG, 218 IP, 140 K, 1.193 WHIP
Satchel Paige, 1927: 7-2 W-L, 2.39 ERA, 157 ERA+, 5 CG, 98 IP, 93 K, 1.082 WHIP
Roosevelt Davis, 1925: 16-6 W-L, 4.45 ERA, 118 ERA+, 9 CG, 168 IP, 48 K, 1.196 WHIP
As noted, there were many pitchers in the 19th century who had outstanding age-20 seasons. The best of these were from Silver King, Kid Nichols, Tommy Bond, Scott Stratton, Amos Rusie, Larry Corcoran, and John Ward, but there were many others with impressive numbers too.
As for relievers, relatively few have had outstanding age-20 seasons. Here are the numbers for the seven I included on the dream team roster above, and after Forster you could again debate how to rank these various seasons:
Terry Forster, 1972: 29 Saves, 2.25 ERA, 141 ERA+, 100 IP, 104 K, 1.190 WHIP
Roberto Osuna, 2015: 20 Saves, 2.58 ERA, 159 ERA+, 69.2 IP, 75 K, 0.919 WHIP
Tug McGraw, 1965: 1 Save, 3.32 ERA, 106 ERA+, 97.2 IP, 57 K, 1.392 WHIP
Lindy McDaniel, 1956: 0 Saves, 3.40 ERA, 110 ERA+, 116.1 IP, 59 K, 1.401 WHIP
Victor Cruz, 1978: 9 Saves, 1.71 ERA, 229 ERA+, 47.1 IP, 51 K, 1.331 WHIP
Pedro Ramos, 1955: 5 Saves, 3.88 ERA, 101 ERA+, 130 IP, 34 K, 1.231 WHIP
Billy McCool, 1965: 21 Saves, 4.27 ERA, 88 ERA+, 105.1 IP, 120 K, 1.329 WHIP
All data is from Baseball-Reference.com, and also their subscription service Stathead.com. If you are a big sports fan, be sure to check out the latest features at Stathead and the Sports Reference family of sites.
Did you know? I wrote a book with the same title as this Substack newsletter / blog: Now Taking the Field: Baseball’s All-Time Dream Teams for All 30 Franchises. It was published in early 2019, by ACTA Sports, the publisher of the annual Bill James Handbook and other popular titles. You can learn more about it at www.NowTakingTheField.com, or buy directly at Amazon and other booksellers.
