Baseball Buffet for 10/03/2022
Some notes and predictions for tonight's games
Note: This is a second test / beta of a baseball preview article I might to do more of in the future, possibly in 2023. It is intended for both fans in general and those who are into betting on baseball. I welcome your feedback!
Unlike most Mondays during the season, today we have a full slate of games. As with my similar edition on September 30th, I’ll focus on standard game-level bets, players likely to homer today, and some interesting starting pitcher strikeout over/under lines.
Current Streaks to Watch Today
If it weren't for Aaron Judge's historic season, everyone would be crowning Shohei Ohtani with his second AL MVP award (even with the Angels out of contention.) The latest impressive Ohtani achievement? He currently has the longest hitting streak in the Majors, sitting at 17 games at present. During that span he has gone 23-65 for a .354 average. He's smacked six doubles but otherwise has had a bit of a power outage with zero HR during this time.
The second longest active streak is Luis Urias of Milwaukee at 12, and then we drop to 8 game streaks for Seiya Suzuki of the Cubs and Jeff McNeil of the Mets. In McNeil's case he's really been on fire going 17-35 (.486) during those 8 games.
In terms of team streaks, the Cubs have won 7 in a row and they face their division rival Reds who have lost 6 in a row. The Angels have also won 7 in a row, and I'd say have a good shot of extending that with Patrick Sandoval on the mound against the lowly Athletics who are starting Adrian Martinez.
Game/Run/Money Lines
There are lots of factors to consider of course, but one thing I pay attention to is how well the starting pitchers in a matchup have done historically against the batters currently on the opposing team's roster. Using the stats from Stathead here, some things that jump out at me are:
The Braves and Marlins to score under 7 runs. Luzardo has been solid lately, striking out 23 in 18.2 IP while giving up 5 earned runs. And the young 23-year old Bryce Elder has been very useful for the Braves as a spot starter, posting a 2.76 ERA and only letting up 2 ER with 28 K over 27.2 IP in his last four starts dating back to mid-August.
The favored Angels over the Athletics. Patrick Sandoval has been solid this year, including in his three starts against Oakland (though his last outing was against them and was the weakest of the three). Over 11 starts Adrian Martinez has a 6.08 ERA, letting up 13 HR in 53.1 IP. His last start was against them on Sept. 28 wasn't awful, but wasn't great either: 4.2 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 4 SO. His three starts before that were not good, combining for 16 ER over 13.2 IP.
The favored Dodgers over the Rockies. Other than a 3-game stretch in late July, Tony Gonsolin was having his best season by far until injury kept him out for the entire month of September. Given his importance for the post-season, he’ll likely be on a pitch count tonight, but I still like him the Dodgers relievers here. Jose Urena has posted a 5.40 ERA over 16 starts for the Rockies this year, allowing 97 hits in 83.1 IP. Freddie Freeman in particular feasts on him, with 4 HR, 1 triple, and 4 doubles, and a .400 average (14-35) against him in his career.
The favored Brewers over the Diamondbacks. Brandon Woodruff has been on fire lately, so even though his one start against Arizona this year didn't go well, I like his chances to dominate tonight. Arizona on the other hand has Tommy Henry who owns a 5.98 ERA across 8 starts.
Phillies and Astros at under 7.5 runs. I'm only seeing one really interesting pitching duel tonight (unless NYY with Severino and TEX with Martin Perez turns into one). The Astros with Lance McCullers Jr. are hosting the Phillies with Aaron Nola.
Home Runs
Here are some guys to watch for HRs tonight:
Jose Berrios has really struggled this year, leading the AL in hits allowed (196) and earned runs allowed (99). Those numbers along with his 5.37 ERA and 1.434 WHIP demonstrate just how useless "wins" are as a stat, since he has somehow managed an 11-7 record. He has served up 29 HR, which is 1.6 HR/9, and tonight he faces a potent Orioles lineup with lots of guys who can hit HRs. Granted, none of torched Berrios in their careers so far, but Ryan Mountcastle has 2 HR in 10 ABs, Odor has 1 in 17, and Adley Rutschman has 1 in 9. The Orioles lineup is stacked with lefties and switch-hitters against the right-handed Berrios, including Cedric Mullins, Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, and more.
We all know Hunter Greene is a powerful young pitcher, but along with the 156 K over 119.2 IP he's also given up 24 HR, which is a 1.8 HR/9 rate. He is facing the Cubs, and Ian Happ homered against him the first time around.
The Mariners have some power hitters and could feast on Detroit's Bryan Garcia tonight. In three starts this year Garcia has given up 3 HR in 13 IP, and last year he gave up 10 in 39.1 IP. Even in the minors he gave HR at a 1.2 HR/9 rate the past two years. He's a righthander, so some of the Mariners lefty batters might have luck such as Jarred Kelenci, Jesse Winker, or switch hitters Carlos Santana and Cal Raleigh. Maybe righties Mitch Haniger and Eugenio Suarez also.
Cory Abbott of the Nationals has given up 11 HR in 44 IP this year which is a 2.3 HR/9 rate. There isn't much history for Mets batters against him to consider (he did well in his one start and two relief appearances against them this year), but perhaps slugger Pete Alonso, or lefties like Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor (switch hitter), or Dan Vogelbach could get to him tonight.
Tommy Henry of the Diamondbacks has started 8 games this year and given up 9 HR in 40.2 IP, which is a 2.0 HR/9 rate. The Brewers have lots of HR hitters, though none have any history yet against Henry. He is a lefty so perhaps the most likely are righty hitters like Willy Adames and Hunter Renfroe.
Similarly, Adrian Martinez of the Athletics has given up 13 HR in 53.1 IP which is a scary 2.2 HR/9 rate. He faces the Angels tonight, and only Mike Trout homered off him in their previous meeting. As noted above, Ohtani hasn't had a HR in quite a while. But facing Martinez will change that? Trout, Ohtani, and Taylor Ward are the most obvious possibilities here.
Martin Perez of the Rangers is an interesting case. He has been great this year, giving up only 11 HR in 190.1 IP (that is a low 0.5 HR/9 rate). He hasn't given up any HRs since August 19th. And yet... Josh Donaldson, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, and Giancarlo Stanton have all hit him pretty well in their careers. (Aaron Judge has not, at only 1-9 with a double.) If the 2022 version of Perez pitches again tonight, he'll shut them down. If not, then there is reason to believe some HRs could fly.
Here are three other one-off guys to watch for HR tonight based on their past results against the opposing starting pitcher:
Freddie Freeman is 14-35 with 4 HR, a triple, and 4 doubles against Jose Urena of the Rockies.
Vlad Guerrero is 5-13 with 3 HR and a double against Dean Kremer of the Orioles.
Joc Pederson is 8-22 with 4 HR, a triple, and 2 doubles against Joe Musgrove of the Padres.
Strikeout Over/Under for Starting Pitchers
The strikeout over/under lines are usually set very close to each starting pitcher's average strikeouts per game started, with some variance for recent performance and the opposing team's strikeout rate (e.g., the Angels lead MLB in striking out the most, while the Guardians strikeout the least). Here are some notes on strikeout lines for some of tonight's starting pitchers:
Hayden Wesneski - Over 5.5. I know Hunter Green is the one everyone has their eye on in this game for big K numbers. But his over/under is 8.5, which even the way he's been throwing lately is a high bar. I like Wesneski at over 5.5, as he's had 6+ strikeouts in three of his five starts this year, including 8 in his debut, which was against the Reds. He has posted a 2.33 ERA, allowing only 20 hits in 27 innings, and the Reds strikeout a fair amount.
Bryce Elder - Over 4.5 or 5.5. I'm seeing both lines at different sites, but I like the over either way. He's had 6 Ks in each of his September starts, including against the Marlins on September 3. On August 14 he has his season high of 10 Ks, also against Miami. He has been doing great, so I'd definitely take him over 4.5 tonight.
Brandon Woodruff - over 8.5. On the one hand, he's faced Arizona only once this year, fairly recently on September 1, and it didn't go well: 5.2 IP, 8 hits, 5 ER, and only 4 strikeouts. On the other hand, in his last four starts he's had 10-11 Ks each game, for a total of 42 K across only 26 IP. He's let up only 18 hits and 4 ER during that span, so clearly he is peaking late in the season.
Baily Ober - over 5.5. Ober has faced the White Sox twice this year. Way back on April 22 he did well: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, and 6 K. Then just last week on September 27 he did even better: 7.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 10 K. Granted, those have been his two highest strikeout totals across 10 starts this year, but I'll take it.
Lance McCullers Jr. - over 5.5. He's had seven starts since coming back on August 13. In his last four, he's had K totals of 7, 6, 11, and 8, so even with a potent Phillies lineup tonight, getting 6 or more doesn't seem like a stretch.
Aaron Nola - over 5.5. Nola averages 7 K's per game, and has had 8 in each of his last three. Granted, the Astros don't strike out much—second least in all of baseball this season, and only 29 times in their last 5 games. But Nola whiffing 6, especially if he can go deep in the game, isn't too high of a bar.
Well that its for this second Baseball Buffet article! Let me know what you think, and if this sort of write-up more frequently in 2023 would be of interest.