The Best Hitters Against MLB's Most HR-Prone Starting Pitchers
As a follow-up to a recent article, here are hitters who have hit the best against starting pitchers who have given up the most HR over the past two years.
Issue #72
I recently wrote about the overall Best Hitters Against Power, Finesse, Flyball, and Groundball Pitchers in the game today. I then took a more specific look at which hitters have done the best against what we might call the most hittable starting pitchers in the majors right now. Such hitters, when facing these specific pitchers, might be good bets to get a hit or two—useful for those who play MLB’s game “Beat the Streak”. Or they might be good players to target in daily fantasy baseball games on DraftKings, FanDuel, or otherwise.
In doing that analysis, I explained why I was skipped a great many pitchers who gave up hits at a high rate over the past two years. Some are not likely to be used as starting pitchers in 2023, or at least not very often. Some are still free agents, and so it isn’t even clear if or where they will be pitching at all. In the end I looked at ten starting pitchers: Antonio Senzatela (COL), Patrick Corbin (WSN), Daniel Lynch (KCR), José Ureña (COL), Brad Keller (KCR), Kyle Freeland (COL), Jordan Lyles (KCR), Kyle Hendricks (CHC), Paul Blackburn (OAK), and Kris Bubic (KCR).
For this article, I wanted to focus on the starting pitchers who have given up homeruns at the highest rate over the past two seasons. Some of the above ten fall into that category as well—they both give up a lot of hits and a lot of homeruns—such as Corbin, Lyles, and Hendricks. So I won’t look at them again here—refer back to my previous article for the hitters who do well against them.
I’m also going to ignore several pitchers in this analysis, for the following reasons:
Justin Dunn (CIN), Vladimir Gutierrez (CIN), and John Means (BAL) are not likely to be ready at the start of the season.
Dylan Bundy is currently a free agent.
Tyler Megill (NYM), Jonathan Heasley (KCR), and Luis Patino (TBR) at present don’t seem likely to get many starts in 2023.
Hunter Greene (CIN) had some growing pains as a 22-year old early in 2022, and overall gave up 1.7 HR/9 IP on the season. Perhaps that rate will continue in 2023, but I suspect it could decline given how well he ended the season—and I for one will not be placing any bets on hitters to HR against him!
The Best Hitters Against 8 of MLB’s Most HR-Prone Starting Pitchers
So with those names set aside, here are eight starting pitchers who had a cumulative HR/9 ratio of at least 1.6 over the past two seasons and that I think will see at least some time as SP in 2023. The stats for the hitters listed, except where noted, are their results against that pitcher from 2021 and 2022.
Nationals - Josiah Gray (2.3 HR/9, 8.2 H/9)
Gray is still only 25. It wouldn't be hard to improve on his 2022 campaign, as he led the NL in both HR allowed (38) and BB allowed (66)—while only pitching 148.2 IP. He pitched great in the minors, so I’m sure that Nationals are hopeful he can get it going in the majors too. But until he does, he seems pretty HR-prone.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 4-10, 2 HR, D
Brian Anderson (MIL) 5-14, 2 HR, D
Ian Happ (CHC) 2-6, 2 HR
Mookie Betts (LAD) 2-5, 2 HR
Rangers - Andrew Heaney (1.9 HR/9, 8.5 H/9)
Heaney had his best season ever at age 31 for the Dodgers in 2022, posting a 3.10 ERA with 110 K in 72.2 IP. He only made 14 starts, but did generally well—except he continues to let up a lot of homers, posting a 1.7 HR/9 rate. Now with the Rangers and turning 32 in June, even if he does well overall, it would seem the HRs will still happen.
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) 2-6, 2 HR (and 3-9 with 3 HR in career)
Jose Abreu (HOU) 2-3, 2 HR (and 4-11 with 4 HR in career)
Jose Ramirez (CLE) 3-4, 2 HR
Xander Bogaerts (SDP) 3-6, HR, D (and 8-16 with 2 HR, 2 D in career)
Pirates - Vince Velasquez (1.8 HR/9, 8.4 H/9)
Last year for the White Sox Velasquez started 9 games and pitched 18 in relief. He allowed 1.3 HR/9 which isn't too bad, but in 2021 with the Phillies and Padres he started 21 games and let up 2.2 HR/9. He'll be turning 31 in June, and with a 1.5 HR/9 mark for his career, I suspect he'll still be letting up some HRs.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) 3-7, 2 HR (13-36, 2 HR, 3 D in career)
Tyler O'Neill (STL) 3-4, 2 HR
Alex Bregman (HOU) 2-4, 2 HR (and 3-5 with 3 HR in career)
Manny Machado (SDP) 2-2, 2 HR
Blue Jays - Yusei Kikuchi (1.7 HR/9, 8.3 H/9)
Kikuchi turns 32 in June, and in four years in MLB he just hasn't been very good. He owns a 5.02 ERA, 1.424 WHIP, 9.1 H/9 and 1.7 HR/9. And in 2022 he had a career worst 2.1 HR/9 in 32 games pitched, including 20 starts (100.2 IP).
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) 4-9, 3 HR, D
Yuli Gurriel (MIA) 6-16, 2 HR, 3 D
Joey Gallo (MIN) 3-7, 2 HR
Gleyber Torres (NYY) 6-12, HR, D
Carlos Correa (MIN) 8-14, T, 2 D
Cubs - Drew Smyly (1.7 HR/9, 9.0 H/9)
Although Smyly pitched better in 2022 than in 2021, he turns 34 in June and owns a 1.5 HR/9 for his career.
Eduardo Escobar (NYM) 4-6, 2 HR, D (and 8-14, 4 HR, D in his career)
Jacob Stallings (MIA) 2-5, 2 HR
And then here are three who have done well against Smyly in their careers:
Josh Donaldson (NYY) 10-20, 3 HR, 3 D
Mookie Betts (LAD) 10-28, 2 HR, 3 D
George Springer (TOR) - 6-12, 2 HR, 3 D
Mariners - Marco Gonzalez (1.6 HR/9, 8.8 H/9)
Gonzalez, now 31, has given up HR at a higher rate the past two years than he did from 2018-2020. He is a low-strikeout pitcher too, posting a career low 5.1 K/9 rate in 2022.
Matt Olson (ATL) 6-13, 4 HR (and 11-41, 6 HR in career)
Luis Rengifo (LAA) 5-16, 3 HR
Byron Buxton (MIN) 4-8, 3 HR, D
Adolis Garcia (TEX) 8-28, 2 HR, 3 D
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 3-8, 2 HR (and 7-16, 2 HR, D in career)
Jeremy Pena (HOU) 3-10, 2 HR
Brandon Lowe (TBR) 3-5, 2 HR, D
Mike Trout has also hit Gonzalez pretty well over his career, oging 14-40 with 3 HR and 3 D.
Phillies - Baily Falter (1.6 HR/9, 9.1 H/9)
Falter will turn 26 in late April, and will be playing in only his third season in the majors in 2023. It is unclear how many starts he'll see, but might get some as a 5th or 6th starter for the Phillies. Limited data here:
Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) 3-7, 2 HR
Josh Bell (CLE) 4-5, 2 HR, D
Yan Gomes (CHC) 2-2, 2 HR
Nationals - Chad Kuhl (1.6 HR/9, 9.4 H/9)
Kuhl is 30 now, and competing for a role on the Nationals staff after starting 27 games with a 5.72 ERA and 1.555 WHIP for the Rockies last year. He might end up used more in relief than as a starter—either way, Machado (9 for 13?) sure seems to like facing Kuhl lately!
Manny Machado (SDP) 9-13, 2 HR, 2 D
Jake Cronenworth (SDP) 6-13, 2 HR, 2 D
And lastly, Anthony Rizzo has also hit Kuhl well in his career, going 9-25 with 2 HR, T, 4 D.
All data is from Baseball-Reference.com, and also their subscription service Stathead.com. If you are a big sports fan, be sure to check out the latest features at Stathead and the Sports Reference family of sites.
Did you know? I wrote a book with the same title as this Substack newsletter / blog: Now Taking the Field: Baseball’s All-Time Dream Teams for All 30 Franchises. It was published in early 2019, by ACTA Sports, the publisher of the annual Bill James Handbook and other popular titles. You can learn more about it at www.NowTakingTheField.com, or buy directly at Amazon and other booksellers.
