Best Hitter Splits Over the Past Two Years

Who hits really well at home? Against lefties? In day games? When facing a starting pitcher for the third time in a game? Prepare for 2023 by considering these hitting splits and more!

Issue #62

In starting to prepare for the 2023 season, and the betting I might want to do, I recently did some analysis and wrote an article here on Who gets the most HRs, Hits, and Strikeouts in Bunches? That info is relevant for bets like 2+ HR in a game, 3+ hits in a game, or say 11+ strikeouts by a starting pitcher.

I’ve done some further analysis of active players according to various “splits”—things like how well they hit at home, vs. LHP or RHP, batting in various batting order slots, hitting during day games, and third-time facing a starting pitcher in a game. This information is both just interesting to me, and can be useful to have when considering proposition bets (e.g., player X to hit a HR today) or in-game bets when a condition has changed (e.g., now facing a lefty reliever or facing a starter for the third time that day).

So here are the highlights of this analysis…I hope you find it interesting and perhaps useful if do any betting in 2023. Please note: all numbers below are for players’ combined results from both 2021 and 2022.

Who hits really well at home?

Here are the leaders in OPS in 2021-22 at the players’ home park:

• Mike Trout 1.158 OPS, 26 HR in 75 G

• C.J. Cron 1.010 OPS, 41 HR in 142 G

• Bryce Harper 1.006 OPS, 28 HR in 116 G

• Shohei Ohtani 1.004 OPS, 47 HR in 157 G

• Vlad Guerrero .985 OPS, 50 HR in 159 G

• Jack Suwinski .982 OPS, 16 HR in 56 G

• Paul Goldschmidt .966 OPS, 36 HR in 155 G

• Gavin Sheets .963, 22 HR in 88 G

• Aaron Judge .951, 45 HR in 154 G

• Jose Altuve .950, 32 HR in 146 G

Lots of big names here that perhaps do a bit better at home, but also put up a big OPS number on the road. Not entirely surprising to see C.J. Cron of the Rockies high on this list, given that his home field is Colorado. Coors Field isn’t the crazy offensive place it once was, but it is still obviously an offense-friendly stadium.

The two names that jump out to me the most are two of the three smallest datasets here: Jack Suwinski and Gavin Sheets. In his 2022 rookie season, Suwinski clearly preferred hitting at home in Pittsburgh, as he swatted 16 HR in 56 games with a very solid .282/.373/.609 slash line, but on the road had only 3 HR in 50 games and a paltry .112/.211/.184 slash line. Yikes!

Gavin Sheets has just about as extreme of a split for the White Sox across 2021 and 2022. He hit 22 HR in 88 games with a .290/.353/.610 slash line at home, versus only 4 HR in 90 games with a .201/.257/.281 slash line on the road.

Looking at just batting average, who hits the best at home?

• Tyler Stephenson .340 in 283 PA

• Rob Refsnyder .331 in 174 PA (Note: .370 in 89 PA in Boston in 2022)

• Mike Trout .331 in 304 PA

• Brendan Donovan .330 in 229 PA

• Nico Hoerner .327 in 341 PA

• Yonathan Daza .320 in 366 PA

• Tim Anderson .317 in 474 PA

• Starling Marte .317 in 506 PA

Xander Bogaerts and Luis Arraez also hit over .315 at their home parks over the past two years, but they will be calling new stadiums home in 2023, so I didn’t think it was relevant to include them here. And I further noted the 2022 numbers for Refsnyder above because in 2021 he was with the Twins, so really its just his limited playing time in 2022 for Boston that matter for considering 2023.

Who hits left-handed pitchers the best?

Here we have arguably the most obvious “split” consideration that baseball fans, and especially betters, like to analyze. Here are the players with the highest OPS against lefties across 2021-22:

• Paul Goldschmidt 1.191 OPS, 19 HR in 275 PA

• Mike Zunino 1.095 OPS, 18 HR in 169 PA

• Teoscar Hernandez 1.080 OPS, 20 HR in 237 PA

• Luis Robert 1.053 OPS, 9 HR in 155 PA

• Trea Turner 1.012 OPS, 21 HR in 350 PA

• Aaron Judge .999 OPS, 29 HR in 355 PA

• Mike Trout .992 OPS, 9 HR in 185 PA

• Ketel Marte .970 OPS, 12 HR in 264 PA

• Fernando Tatis Jr. .968 OPS, 9 HR in 134 PA

• Byron Buxton .952 OPS, 15 HR in 200 PA

• Brandon Drury .940 OPS, 14 HR in 192 PA

• Rhys Hoskins .938 OPS, 18 HR in 324 PA

• Nolan Arenado .935 OPS, 20 HR in 247 PA

Again, lots of big sluggers here who hit both lefties and righties pretty well. But it is worth noting just how well Goldschmidt hits lefties, as 1.195 OPS is very impressive. In his 2022 MVP season it was even higher, as he posted a 1.327 OPS in 137 PA against lefties and a .893 OPS in 514 PA against righties.

Seeing slugging catcher Mike Zunino second on this list was curious, so I looked a bit further and discovered that he really didn’t have a significant LHP/RHP split in 2022, and has only hit lefties somewhat better for much of his career. But in 2021, when he hit 33 HR, he slashed .342/.419/.868 against LHP but only .151/.240/.397 against RHP. So it will be interesting to see what version of Zunino his new team, the Cleveland Guardians, we get in 2023.

As for batting average against LHP, here are the leaders across 2021-22:

• Paul Goldschmidt .379 in 275 PA

• Luis Robert .373 in 155 PA

• Trea Turner .343 in 350 PA

• Tim Anderson .342 in 204 PA

• Teoscar Hernandez .336 in 237 PA

• Wander Franco .335 in 181 PA

• Rob Refsnyder .333 in 137 PA

• Alec Bohm .325 in 312 PA

• Ketel Marte .325 in 264 PA

• Xander Bogaerts .324 in 358 PA

• Dylan Carlson .323 in 279 PA

• Harold Ramirez .323 in 247 PA

• Santiago Espinal .322 in 227 PA

• Yonathan Daza .321 in 258 PA

• Charlie Culberson .319 in 228 PA

• Brendan Rodgers .317 in 307 PA

• Randy Arozarena .308 in 361 PA

Impressive to see batting averages over .370 for both Paul Goldschmidt and Luis Robert. Goldy has really started mashing against lefties the past two seasons, as his career average against LHP is a solid but more modest .329 (he has hit .285 against RHP for his career).

Looking at stats against RHP is less enlightening. The OPS leaders are basically the best hitters in the game. The same is largely true for batting average too, with guys like Freddie Freeman, Luis Arraez, etc., hitting RHP well. Here are four that I thought were worth noting in term of just batting average against RHP in 2021-22:

• Michael Brantley .336 in 518 PA

• Michael Harris .323 in 306 PA

• Bryce Harper .319 in 700 PA

• Oscar Gonzalez .308 in 267 PA

Who hits really well in the first three spots in the lineup?

Some guys regularly bat leadoff, and do well in that role. Others regularly bat in certain spots in the lineup, and again have success in doing so. But what about players who rarely bat in certain spots, but have done quite well when doing so? I only looked at the first three batting lineup spots, and tried to ignore players that I know regularly hit in those spots.

So starting with leadoff, here are the OPS leaders for 2021-22 for players batting first in the lineup but who don’t pretty regularly bat leadoff:

• Aaron Judge 1.221 OPS, 13 HR in 34 G

• Fernando Tatis Jr. 1.106 OPS, 12 HR in 24 G

• Julio Rodriguez .940 OPS, 16 HR in 58 G

• Jesse Winker .920 OPS, 12 HR in 44 G

• Austin Hays .908 OPS, 4 HR in 20 G

• Randy Arozarena .882 OPS, 12 HR in 60 G

• Tyler Naquin .880 OPS, 8 HR in 22 G

• AJ Pollock .879 OPS, 5 HR in 28 G

• Chris Taylor .878 OPS, 7 HR in 24 G

• Oneil Cruz .872 OPS, 7 HR in 32 G

Given these numbers, might we see some of these guys hit in their lineup’s leadoff spot more often in 2023? I mean, a 1.221 OPS is impressive even for Judge. Jesse Winker is on a new team in Milwaukee, so it will be interesting to see how they use him. And I’d love to see the Pirates give Oneil Cruz as many plate appearances as they can. He actually hit in the leadoff spot more often last year than any other spot in the lineup, and generally did better there than his other most common spots: he slashed .282/.331/.541 while leading off compared to .260/.327/.660 when batting 7th (power good), .194/.257/.284 when batting sixth, and only .177/.243/.353 when batting fifth.

Here are the highest batting averages from 2021-22 for players when hitting first in the lineup who don’t usually do so:

• Aaron Judge .366 in 34 G

• AJ Pollock .328 in 28 G

• Fernando Tatis Jr. .324 in 24 G

• Ryan McKenna .316 in 14 G

• Yonathan Daza .313 in 16 G

Batting Judge leadoff has obvious pros and cons. He is guaranteed to get the most plate appearances that way, but his first at-bat is also guaranteed to not have any runners on base for him to potentially drive in. Ditto for others sluggers on the above lists, like Tatis and Rodriguez, as well as Kyle Schwarber who I didn’t include because he has started batting in the #1 spot more often in recent years.

What about guys batting second who don’t nearly always bat second? Here are the OPS leaders for 2021-22:

• Nick Castellanos 1.115 OPS, 12 HR in 36 G, .371/.416/.699

• Darin Ruf 1.043 OPS, 6 HR in 24 G, .337/.404/.639

• Chris Taylor 1.036 OPS, 3 HR in 9 G, .357/.500/.536

• Frank Schwindel 1.024 OPS, 12 HR in 47 G, .345/.395/.629

• Brandon Belt 1.000 OPS, 22 HR in 58 G, .296/.377/.622

• Luis Arraez .977 OPS, 1 HR in 20 G, .392/.477/.500

• Joey Meneses .952 OPS, 12 HR in 19 G, .346/.372/.580

• Garrett Cooper .937 OPS, 4 HR in 48 G, .337/.423/.514

• Tyler Naquin .904 OPS, 3 HR in 31 G, .333/.369/.535

Wow… Castellanos really mashes when he’s batted second in the lineup the past two years. And Luis Arraez is a high-average hitter in general, but .392 when batting second in the lineup is impressive.

I did this same analysis for the third spot in the lineup too, with the following being the OPS leaders for 2021-22:

• Willy Adames 1.124 OPS, 8 HR in 20 G, .329/.414/.711

• Bo Bichette 1.053 OPS, 9 HR in 28 G, .350/.386/.667

• Joey Wendle 1.035 OPS, 1 HR in 15 G, .392/.407/.628

• Marcus Semien 1.019 OPS, 4 HR in 21 G, .329/.361/.658

• Eloy Jimenez .967 OPS, 2 HR in 21 G, .373/.461/.507

• Will Smith .963 OPS, 11 HR in 29 G, .287/.328/.635

• Julio Rodriguez .959 OPS, 5 HR in 24 G, .333/.396/.563

• Corey Seager .952 OPS, 13 HR in 46 G, .306/.380/.572

• Pete Alonso .948 OPS, 9 HR in 39 G, .314/.378/.571

As with Castellanos in the two-hole, Willy Adames clearly likes batting third. And Joey Wendle doesn’t suddenly get more power when batting third, but a .392 batting average is nice. These are admittedly and by definition not big sample sizes, but they are still impressive numbers to consider.

Who really benefits and hits well the third time they face a starting pitcher in a game?

Several baseball analysts long ago noted that, on average, pitchers don’t do as well the third time through the lineup. This makes intuitive sense: yes, both the pitcher and the hitter are now seeing each other for a third time, but the pitcher has nine spots in the lineup to track, while the hitter has just one opponent to make adjustments against. Plus while there are some workhorses—even in today’s game—who might improve as the game goes on, more starting pitchers are likely beginning to tire, both physically and mentally, by the third time through the lineup (especially if this is happening in the sixth inning or later).

So who really has excelled the past two years when facing a starting pitcher for the third time in a game? Here are the OPS leaders:

• Joey Meneses 1.678 OPS, 5 HR in 39 PA

• Oneil Cruz 1.276 OPS, 6 HR in 50 PA

• Brandon Belt 1.214 OPS, 10 HR in 90 PA

• Mike Trout 1.176 OPS, 9 HR in 111 PA

• Byron Buxton 1.171 OPS, 13 HR in 114 PA

• Adam Engel 1.147 OPS, 2 HR in 32 PA

• Fernando Tatis Jr. 1.127 OPS, 9 HR in 86 PA

• Vlad Guerrero Jr. 1.115 12 HR in 208 PA

• Juan Soto 1.086 OPS, 13 HR in 206 PA

• Eloy Jimenez 1.081 OPS, 3 HR in 78 PA

• Paul Goldschmidt 1.058 OPS, 12 HR in 212 PA

• Aaron Judge 1.055 OPS, 15 HR in 201 PA

• Trevor Story 1.055 OPS, 7 HR in 138 PA

• Jarred Kelenic 1.044 OPS, 4 HR in 40 PA

• Adolis Garcia, 1.041, 16 HR in 191 PA

• Bryce Harper, 1.039, 11 HR in 159 PA

• C.J. Cron 1.027, 8 HR in 155 PA

• Garrett Cooper 1.026 OPS, 4 HR in 109 PA

• Manny Machado 1.026 OPS, 13 HR in 205 PA

• Ty France 1.022 OPS, 11 HR in 203 PA

• Max Muncy 1.014 OPS, 11 HR in 135 PA

• Alex Verdugo 1.011 OPS, 8 HR in 164 PA

This is definitely an interesting list. That is a not large sample size, but clearly rookie Joey Meneses was able to capitalize on seeing some starters for a third time in a game! And interesting that another rookie, Oneil Cruz, shows up second on this list, followed by veterans Brandon Belt and Mike Trout.

I again looked at just high batting averages as well, so here are the leaders from 2021-22 when facing a SP for the third time in a game:

• Joey Meneses .529 in 39 PA

• Adam Engel .419 in 32 PA

• Yonathan Daza .407 in 93 PA

• Vlad Guerrero Jr. .391 in 208 PA

• Eloy Jimenez .382 in 78 PA

• Paul Goldschmidt .377 in 212 PA

• Bryson Stott .364 in 35 PA

• Alex Verdugo .362 in 164 PA

• Tim Anderson .362 in 157 PA

• Akil Baddoo .359 in 73 PA

• Corey Dickerson .357 in 72 PA

• Nick Madrigal .357 in 47 PA

• Ty France .355 in 203 PA

• Jeff McNeil .355 in 118 PA

• Oneil Cruz .354 in 50 PA

• Santiago Espinal .350 in 40 PA

• Chas McCormick .349 in 68 PA

• Yadiel Hernandez .348 in 72 PA

• C.J. Cron .345 in 155 PA

• Xander Bogaerts .343 in 181 PA

• Trevor Story .342 in 138 PA

• Mike Trout .340 in 111 PA

Those are high batting averages! Some of these guys are generally high-average hitters, like Tim Anderson, Jeff McNeil, and Xander Bogaerts. But others not so much, like Adam Engel, Chas McCormick, C.J. Cron, and rookies Bryston Stott and Oneil Cruz.

Who hits well during day games?

The last split analysis I’ll include in this article is a consideration of who hits particularly well during day games. Most games are played at night, so there really aren’t any statistical outliers when it comes to hitting well in the evening. But here is an interesting list of players with strong slash lines during day games:

• Joey Meneses .338/.375/.563 in 88 PA

• Rafael Devers .335/.398/.593 in 432 PA

• Harold Ramirez .331/.378/.475 in 267 PA

• CJ Abrams .330/.353/.431 in 117 PA

• Alfonso Rivas .330/.408/.418 in 120 PA

Perhaps these are just statistical flukes. Or do these guys really like baseball in the daytime?

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Did you know? I wrote a book with the same title as this Substack newsletter / blog: Now Taking the Field: Baseball’s All-Time Dream Teams for All 30 Franchises. It was published in early 2019, by ACTA Sports, the publisher of the annual Bill James Handbook and other popular titles. You can learn more about it at www.NowTakingTheField.com, or buy directly at Amazon and other booksellers.