Who hits really well at home? Against lefties? In day games? When facing a starting pitcher for the third time in a game? Prepare for 2023 by considering these hitting splits and more!
The fact that the splits against RHP are basically a list of the players with the best OPS in the game is a sign of how overrated lefty/righty splits are in general, in my opinion. Speaking from the point of view of a baseball simulator (and check out my blog if you're interested), the more wild and interesting the lefty/righty split is for any given season, the higher the chances are that there are big sample size issues.
In "The Book," Tom Tango concluded that it took right handed hitters about 2,000 plate appearances against left handed pitchers before measured platoon splits could be considered reliable — which is, what, about 3 seasons worth? Similarly, Tango concluded that lefty hitters needed about 2,000 plate appearances against left handed pitchers before they could be reliable. In other words, it's really only the veteran hitters whose splits can be considered "reliable" or "meaningful" — and it just so happens that the splits over numerous years tend to revert to historical means.
Interestingly, Tango concluded that splits were more meaningful for pitchers at lower sample levels. My gut tells me that this was due to skewing in his data, as he was looking at a pool of pitchers dominated by LOOGY types who had extremely short careers. But I haven't really taken the time yet to dig into it.
Honestly, all the hoopla about lefty-righty splits being extremely important comes largely from Strat-O-Matic marketing, in my opinion. Yes, it does matter in real life — but it's also very hard to measure, especially since managers use players in a way that reflects perceived platoon advantages. It's really hard to measure how good a right handed batter is against left handed pitchers if he never starts against left handed pitchers.
Also — what I love about Baseball-Reference these days is how easy it is to get all of this info, even for older seasons. There's a lot of good research just waiting to be done.
Thanks for the insightful comment. I can't disagree that lefty/right splits are over-analyzed / over-used in many ways. That is one reason I wrote my article to cover it, but then cover a lot of other potentially interesting "splits" too. I think for many hitters, the difference isn't that great, even if we see say a 20+ point swing in BA. In some cases I do think it shows up more in power numbers, and then there are the interesting cases of switch-hitters, where simply being a switch hitter at all is impresive in my view, but clearly some guys are better from one side of the plate or the other, perhaps especially in terms of power capability. In those cases, it would be interesting to ask them or analyze the data... if you are a switch hitter, but noticeably better say as a righty than a lefty, would be noticeably worse against certain pitchers if you didn't both switching sides?
I do think there are some clear examples of players where the L/R splits data is telling us something real. Luis Arraez often sits against lefties, but he pays enough against them and the difference is so big, I think we can clearly say he hits righties better than lefties (.330 vs. .261). Or Albert Pujols the last two seasons of his career -- the difference was massive. Andrew McCutchen is another one, pretty over his entire career -- though less so last year for some reason. And the one I called out in my article, Paul Goldschmidt -- definitely hits lefties better for his career, and last year was very lopsided.
But overall, when I'm looking to make propo bets, or choose guys in DFS tiers or creating a lineup, I don't put really automatically favor lefty/righty matchups in general -- just the most extreme cases. And those ideally should be backed up with other data pointing in the same direction, like not just Goldschmidt is facing a lefty starter, but a lefty starter who he has a proven result against (preferably 20+ PA), and even better if the team's bullpen is weak, he is hot lately, etc.
The fact that the splits against RHP are basically a list of the players with the best OPS in the game is a sign of how overrated lefty/righty splits are in general, in my opinion. Speaking from the point of view of a baseball simulator (and check out my blog if you're interested), the more wild and interesting the lefty/righty split is for any given season, the higher the chances are that there are big sample size issues.
In "The Book," Tom Tango concluded that it took right handed hitters about 2,000 plate appearances against left handed pitchers before measured platoon splits could be considered reliable — which is, what, about 3 seasons worth? Similarly, Tango concluded that lefty hitters needed about 2,000 plate appearances against left handed pitchers before they could be reliable. In other words, it's really only the veteran hitters whose splits can be considered "reliable" or "meaningful" — and it just so happens that the splits over numerous years tend to revert to historical means.
Interestingly, Tango concluded that splits were more meaningful for pitchers at lower sample levels. My gut tells me that this was due to skewing in his data, as he was looking at a pool of pitchers dominated by LOOGY types who had extremely short careers. But I haven't really taken the time yet to dig into it.
Honestly, all the hoopla about lefty-righty splits being extremely important comes largely from Strat-O-Matic marketing, in my opinion. Yes, it does matter in real life — but it's also very hard to measure, especially since managers use players in a way that reflects perceived platoon advantages. It's really hard to measure how good a right handed batter is against left handed pitchers if he never starts against left handed pitchers.
Also — what I love about Baseball-Reference these days is how easy it is to get all of this info, even for older seasons. There's a lot of good research just waiting to be done.
Thanks for the insightful comment. I can't disagree that lefty/right splits are over-analyzed / over-used in many ways. That is one reason I wrote my article to cover it, but then cover a lot of other potentially interesting "splits" too. I think for many hitters, the difference isn't that great, even if we see say a 20+ point swing in BA. In some cases I do think it shows up more in power numbers, and then there are the interesting cases of switch-hitters, where simply being a switch hitter at all is impresive in my view, but clearly some guys are better from one side of the plate or the other, perhaps especially in terms of power capability. In those cases, it would be interesting to ask them or analyze the data... if you are a switch hitter, but noticeably better say as a righty than a lefty, would be noticeably worse against certain pitchers if you didn't both switching sides?
I do think there are some clear examples of players where the L/R splits data is telling us something real. Luis Arraez often sits against lefties, but he pays enough against them and the difference is so big, I think we can clearly say he hits righties better than lefties (.330 vs. .261). Or Albert Pujols the last two seasons of his career -- the difference was massive. Andrew McCutchen is another one, pretty over his entire career -- though less so last year for some reason. And the one I called out in my article, Paul Goldschmidt -- definitely hits lefties better for his career, and last year was very lopsided.
But overall, when I'm looking to make propo bets, or choose guys in DFS tiers or creating a lineup, I don't put really automatically favor lefty/righty matchups in general -- just the most extreme cases. And those ideally should be backed up with other data pointing in the same direction, like not just Goldschmidt is facing a lefty starter, but a lefty starter who he has a proven result against (preferably 20+ PA), and even better if the team's bullpen is weak, he is hot lately, etc.